422
WTNT32 KNHC 010241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...BERYL STILL A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 58.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d`Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.  Additional watches
or warnings may be required on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 58.1 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across
the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the
next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward
Islands into the eastern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early tomorrow morning.  Potentially catastrophic
wind damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through
portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core
in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area starting tomorrow morning, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting tomorrow morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for
parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through
Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the
Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable
areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days.  Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin