162
WTNT32 KNHC 011153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
800 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE BERYL HAS STRENGTHENED
TO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 60.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...125 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 90 MI...165 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the island.

The government of Dominica has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands
* Grenada
* Tobago

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Trinidad
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d`Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued quick
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to
move across the Windward Islands this morning and across the
southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late today through Wednesday.

Data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are
likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an
extremely dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the
Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is
expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is
forecast to remain a hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).  Grantley Adams International Airport on Barbados
recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to
69 mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is
959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area beginning early this morning. Potentially catastrophic wind
damage is expected where the core of Beryl moves through portions of
the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St.
Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring or imminent in the tropical
storm warning area.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
starting this morning for Dominica, and by Tuesday afternoon for
parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through this
afternoon. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in
the Grenadines and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding
in vulnerable areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart