005
WTNT32 KNHC 020248
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...BERYL BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 64.9W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d`Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of
the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of
Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 64.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). Beryl is forecast
to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will
move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea
tonight through Tuesday and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on
Wednesday.

Recent data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicates that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Beryl is now a potentially catastrophic category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations
in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is
expected to still be near major hurricane intensity as its moves
into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday.
Some more weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast
to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast on
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday.  Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola by late Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, in portions of
Jamaica on Wednesday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in
vulnerable areas. Rainfall from outer bands of Beryl may impact
portions of Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of
rain possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late tonight into Tuesday. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin