868
WTNT32 KNHC 020549
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
200 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

...CATEGORY 5 BERYL STILL INTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO
JAMAICA LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 65.8W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward
to the border with Haiti
* South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican
Republic to Anse d`Hainault

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of
the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of
Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 65.8 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). Beryl is forecast
to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move
quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today
and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday.

Recent data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are
likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to still be
near major hurricane intensity as its moves into the central
Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday.  Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 935 mb (27.61
inches) based on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast on
Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday.  Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the
south coast of Hispaniola later today.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along
the immediate coast of Jamaica.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of
Hispaniola.

RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of
4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, in portions of
Jamaica on Wednesday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in
vulnerable areas. Rainfall from outer bands of Beryl may impact
portions of Hispaniola today into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of
rain possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the
Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of
days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci