914
WTNT42 KNHC 022041
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

The cloud pattern of Beryl has become a little less organized since
the last reconnaissance aircraft left the storm near 17Z.  While
the eyewall cloud tops have cooled, the eye has become ragged
and less distinct inside the central dense overcast, and the
overall cloud pattern is becoming elongated due to shear.
Objective intensity estimates suggest that the hurricane has
weakened a little in the past few hours, but the advisory intensity
will be held at 135 kt until the arrival of the next aircraft
missions near 00Z.

The initial motion is a quick 290/19 kt.  A strong subtropical
ridge centered over the southern United States will continue to
steer Beryl west-northwestward to westward across the central and
northwestern Caribbean for the next few days, and this motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in about 24 h, near the Cayman
Islands in about 36 h, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
around 60-72 h.  After that, there remains a significant spread in
the track guidance when Beryl emerges into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico, due mainly to model differences in the strength and
location of a break in the subtropical ridge over the southern
United States.  The GFS shows a more northerly motion during this
time, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast a more westerly motion.
This part of forecast track lies between these extremes near the
consensus models and has a higher than normal amount of uncertainty.

The intensity forecast also continues to be uncertain.  The models
are in good agreement that Beryl should steadily weaken during the
next 60 h due to shear and dry air entrainment, but the models
show a slower rate of weakening than previously.  Based on this,
the new intensity forecast calls for Beryl to still be a major
hurricane when it passes near Jamaica, at or near major hurricane
strength when it passes the Cayman Islands, and still be a
hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.  This part of the
forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There
remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl
emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better
agreement that the cyclone  will intensify some while crossing the
Gulf.  The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle
of the spread-out intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Residents in these
areas should listen to local government and emergency management
officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely
over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday where additional watches
will likely be required later today or tonight.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 15.9N  70.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 16.7N  73.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 17.7N  77.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 18.5N  80.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 19.1N  83.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 19.7N  87.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 20.7N  89.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 96H  06/1800Z 22.5N  94.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  07/1800Z 24.5N  97.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven