834
WTNT42 KNHC 030247
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Beryl this evening.  Data from the aircraft suggest
that Beryl hasn`t weakened very much so far.  Flight-level winds
indicate that the intensity is still near 130 kt. Satellite-
derived intensity estimates are below this value, and the
eye has become a little less well-defined on the imagery.

The rapid west-northwestward motion continues, at around 290/19 kt.
A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Beryl should continue to
steer the system on a west-northwestward heading across the central
and northwestern Caribbean for the next few days.  This motion
should bring the center near Jamaica in 12 to 24 hours, near the
Cayman Islands in 24 to 36 hours, and near the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico in 48 to 60 hours.  Beyond 72 hours, when Beryl should be
located over the western Gulf of Mexico, the track model spread
increases.  Therefore there is significant uncertainty in the 4-
and 5-day forecast points, when the system encounters a weakness in
the ridge.

There is also considerable uncertainty in the future intensity of
Beryl.  Vertical shear, associated with an upper-level low near the
Yucatan Channel, should increase over Beryl during the next day
or so.  Therefore some weakening seems likely during the next 48
hours.  However, the system should maintain hurricane strength
while it moves over the northwestern Caribbean.  Later in the
forecast period, when Beryl moves over the western Gulf of Mexico,
it is not clear how much the cyclone will re-intensify, but it
should at least be close to hurricane intensity around that time.
The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Devastating hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge,
and damaging waves are expected in portions of Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Residents in these
areas should listen to local government and emergency management
officials for preparedness and/or evacuation orders.

2. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are likely
over much of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through late Wednesday.

3. Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize late Thursday, where hurricane and
tropical storm watches have been issued.

4. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the
western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 16.2N  72.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 17.2N  75.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.1N  78.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 18.7N  82.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 19.3N  85.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 20.1N  88.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/0000Z 21.0N  90.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  07/0000Z 22.7N  94.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 25.0N  97.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON COAST

$$
Forecaster Pasch