810
WTNT42 KNHC 012051
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Beryl has maintained a very impressive satellite appearance this
afternoon. The well-defined, symmetric eye is surrounded by a ring
of infrared cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. The central pressure
of the hurricane was falling throughout the day while the Hurricane
Hunters sampled the storm, with the last aircraft pass showing the
central pressure had fallen to around 946 mb. The latest objective
(ADT/AiDT) and subjective (TAFB/SAB) satellite intensity estimates
still support an intensity between 125 to 130 kt, which lies in
between the earlier reduced flight-level winds and SFMR retrievals
from the aircraft. Thus, the initial intensity of Beryl is held at
130 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward
(290/18-kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic. A fast west-northwestward to westward motion is
expected over the next several days, bringing the center of the
hurricane across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The
latest track guidance has shifted a bit northward this cycle, with
some global models including the GFS and ECMWF showing a closer
approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica by midweek. The latest NHC track
forecast was adjusted in this direction, although it still lies
slightly to the south of the TVCA and HCCA aids. The official
prediction still shows Beryl emerging into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm at day 5, but the track uncertainty is
greater with more ensemble spread during this period.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again
this evening. While some intensity fluctuations are possible in the
near term, the official NHC forecast shows little intensity change
through tonight. An increase in mid-level westerly shear is still
forecast by midweek, and this should cause some weakening while
Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea.
However, Beryl is still forecast to remain a hurricane as it
approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC intensity
prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Once
again, there is increased uncertainty later in the forecast period
regarding the extent of land interaction and vertical depth of the
cyclone once it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and emerges into the
southwestern Gulf.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, dangerous waves, and heavy rainfall
are expected to continue through this evening while the core of
Beryl pulls away from the southern Windward Islands.

2. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Warning
has been issued for the south coast of Hispaniola. Hurricane
conditions are possible in Jamaica on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.

3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula,
the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required during the next day or
two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 13.2N  63.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 14.1N  66.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 15.4N  69.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 16.3N  73.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 17.1N  77.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 17.9N  80.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 18.3N  84.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 19.5N  90.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
120H  06/1800Z 21.0N  94.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Reinhart