729
WTNT42 KNHC 020252
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1100 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Data from a NOAA-P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight has been quite
helpful in assessing Beryl`s structure and intensity. Within the
past hour, the aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of
157 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A typical 90 percent reduction
translates to a maximum sustained wind of 140 kt, which makes Beryl
a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. This is the
earliest Category 5 hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin on
record, and only the second Category 5 hurricane to occur in July
after Hurricane Emily in 2005.

Beryl continues to move quickly to the west-northwest, even a bit
faster than earlier, estimated from plane fixes to be 290/19 kt. A
well-established subtropical ridge oriented ESE-to-WNW of Beryl is
expected to continue to steer the small but potent hurricane quickly
west-northwestward into the central Caribbean over the next several
days. After 48 hours, the strongest ridging becomes positioned more
NW of Beryl, and the storm could turn a bit more westward and
gradually slow down when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean. The
guidance this cycle has nudged a bit further north this cycle, and
thus the NHC forecast track has also been shifted in that direction,
roughly between the reliable HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. After 72
hours, model track spread increases quite markedly, especially after
Beryl emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, and forecast confidence in
the track at the end of the forecast is rather low.

While I cannot rule out a bit more intensification in the
short-term, dropsonde pressure observations between fixes in Beryl`s
eye have remained steady at 938 mb. It is also possible another
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) could begin like we saw last night,
with UW-CIMSS MPERC model giving another ERC a 50-75 percent
probability based on the last few microwave passes. With that said,
after the next 24 hours, both the GFS and ECMWF remain insistent
that significant mid-level westerly shear (above 30 kt) will begin
to undercut Beryl`s outflow layer. The HAFS-A/B regional-hurricane
models, which did a good job predicting Beryl`s peak intensity
today, are also insistent this shear will start to disrupt the
hurricane after the next 24 hours. There is evidence of this less
favorable upper-level pattern on GOES-16 water vapor imagery upwind
of Beryl`s track, and thus a faster rate of weakening is forecasted
from 36-72 hours. There remains much uncertainty of what Beryl`s
structure or intensity will be as it approaches or crosses the
Yucatan, but the current GFS and ECMWF upper-level pattern in the
Gulf of Mexico does not look especially favorable for
restrengthening at the end of the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is now
in effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible over portions of
Jamaica on Wednesday.

3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula,
the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be required on Tuesday or
Wednesday.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 13.8N  64.9W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 14.8N  67.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 15.9N  71.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 16.8N  75.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 17.7N  78.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 18.2N  82.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 18.6N  85.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 20.5N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  07/0000Z 22.5N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin