468
WTNT42 KNHC 020859
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024

Beryl remains an impressive category 5 hurricane this morning.
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined eye, expanding outflow,
and a prominent outer band.  Overnight NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data showed the minimum central pressure falling to about
935 mb, and the Tail Doppler Radar measured 170 kt of wind at about
500 m.  This supports the initial intensity of 145 kt for this
advisory.

The hurricane is moving quickly to west-northwest at an estimated
290/19 kt.  A strong subtropical ridge centered over the southern
United States will continue to steer Beryl west-northwestward to
westward across the central and northwestern Caribbean for the next
few days.  The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly to the
north and lies closest to the corrected consensus aid.  There is
still increased uncertainty in the track forecast beyond 72 h, with
the model guidance showing a large spread as Beryl emerges over the
Gulf of Mexico.

Beryl`s intensity forecast is also rather uncertain.  Model guidance
all indicates that the hurricane will begin to weaken later today
as Beryl encounters moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear.   Later
on, factors such as the possible interaction with the Jamaican
elevated terrain, dry air intrusions, and the structure of the
vertical wind shear will all play a role in the rate of weakening.
The models show quite a wide range of solutions, with guidance
between a strong tropical storm to a major hurricane while it nears
the Yucatan Peninsula.  The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the
aids, showing Beryl as a major hurricane near Jamaica, reaching
Yucatan as a hurricane in about 72 h before emerging as a tropical
storm over the Gulf of Mexico. This is quite an uncertain forecast
beyond a couple of days due to the aforementioned factors.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for Jamaica, where hurricane conditions are expected on
Wednesday.  A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the south
coast of Hispaniola, and a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for all
of the Cayman Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely over much of Jamaica
on Wednesday.

3. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today
or Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 14.6N  66.9W  145 KT 165 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 15.5N  69.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 16.5N  73.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 17.4N  76.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 18.2N  80.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 18.7N  83.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 19.3N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 21.2N  91.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 23.0N  95.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake