482
WTNT42 KNHC 302035
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

After rapidly strengthening for two days straight, Beryl`s intensity
appears to have leveled off.  The extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane has a circular 10 n mi eye with mesovorticies within it.
However, the convection in the eyewall has become a little less
symmetric over the past few hours as it has eroded a bit on the
south side.  The initial intensity is held at 115 kt, which is
near the high end of the latest satellite estimates.  Both the NOAA
and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl
again later this evening.

Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a
strong subtropical ridge to its north.  A continued relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next several days as subtropical ridging remains the primary
steering feature.  Only a minor shift to the north has been made
this cycle, following the trend in the latest models.

Fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes in conducive
environments, and it is expected that Beryl will also fluctuate in
strength for the next day or so.  There is high confidence that
Beryl will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall
in the Windward Islands.  As the hurricane tracks across the
Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind
shear, which should induce a slow weakening trend.  However, it
should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant
hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.  The
NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models.


Key Messages:

1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very
dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to
local government and emergency management officials for any
preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be
rushed to completion today.

2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a
life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when
Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest
risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada
beginning early Monday morning.  Hurricane Warnings are in effect
for much of the Windward Islands.

3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the
Windward Islands through Monday.

4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves
across the Caribbean Sea later this week.  A Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.  Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica,
the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean
should monitor its progress.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 11.1N  56.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 11.7N  59.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 12.8N  62.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 14.2N  66.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 15.4N  70.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 16.4N  74.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 17.3N  77.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 18.8N  84.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 20.3N  89.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi