Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
931
FONT12 KNHC 011457
PWSAT2
HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
1500 UTC MON JUL 01 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 4(34)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) X(31)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PT GALLINAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CURACAO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 4(51) X(51)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 43(59) X(59) X(59)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 26(70) 1(71) X(71)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) X(35) X(35)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 14(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 7(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
PONCE PR 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SABA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
AVES 34 9 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
DOMINICA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT LUCIA 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
SAINT VINCENT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAINT VINCENT 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GRENADA 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
GRENADA 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JUANGRIEGO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART