Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
582
FONT12 KNHC 020856
PWSAT2
HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0900 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24)
MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 9(54) X(54)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) X(23)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) 1(27)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PT GALLINAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 2(28) X(28)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 26(78) X(78) X(78)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) X(44) X(44)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 56(57) 30(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 18(18) 37(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) 86(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 60(60) 10(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 37(37) 9(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
LES CAYES 34 X 24(24) 18(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
LES CAYES 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 25(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 3 63(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66)
CAPE BEATA 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
CAPE BEATA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PUERTO PLATA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE