208
AXNT20 KNHC 020006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jul 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Beryl, now a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane is centered near
13.2N 63.2W at 01/2100 UTC or 110 nm NW of Grenada, moving WNW at
18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are
currently around 42 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong
convection is noted up to 90 nm from the center. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 19N between 60W and
68W. The center of Beryl will continue moving away from the
southern Windward Islands tonight and move quickly westward to
west-northwestward during the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Beryl will move across the southeastern and
central Caribbean Sea tonight through Tuesday and is forecast to
pass near Jamaica on Wednesday. Fluctuations in strength are
likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain
an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its moves over the
eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in the central
Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain a
hurricane. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail. For
the latest Beryl and remnants of Chris NHC Forecast/Advisory and
Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information.

Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96):
A 1012 mb area of low pressure related to a tropical wave is
located near 10N40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N to 12N between 39W and 48W. Peak seas are currently
around 10 ft near the center. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for additional development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this
week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
central and western tropical Atlantic. This system has a MEDIUM
chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 3 to 7 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more detail.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N and with axis near
78W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is found S of 19N between 75W and the Honduras/Nicaragua
coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Mauritania
coast near 20N16W through 11N30W and Invest AL96 to 07N49W. Aside
from the convection associated with AL96, scattered heavy
showers and tstms are ongoing from 05N to 12N between 13W and 29W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the basin due to surface ridging
over the NW Gulf and E of the Florida Peninsula is supporting
light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas, except
for moderate NE winds off the Yucatan Peninsula. Peak seas to 6 ft
are over E Mexico adjacent waters, associated with the
remnants of former Tropical Depression Chris. A surface trough in
the NE basin is supporting scattered moderate convection in that
region. Similar convection is off the Yucatan Peninsula into the E
Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, expect a weak high pressure ridge and gentle to
moderate winds to prevail across the basin through early Thu.
Thereafter, distant Hurricane Beryl, currently moving across the
southeast Caribbean, is forecast to be in the NW Caribbean on Thu
and enter the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19N 88.5W. Beryl
is then expected to move across the Yucatan and enter the Gulf of
Mexico waters in the vicinity of Campeche Fri afternoon as a
tropical storm, then turn more NW and reach near 21N 94W Sat
afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about dangerous Hurricane
Beryl over the E Caribbean.

Dangerous Hurricane Beryl is near 13.2N 63.2W at 2100 UTC moving
WNW or 290 DEG at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 130 kt with
gusts 160 kt. Minimum central pressure is 944 MB. The other
feature of interest is a tropical wave over the SW Caribbean,
supporting fresh to strong trades over that region as well as the
south-central basin. Over the NW Caribbean trades are gentle to
moderate and seas are moderate.

For the forecast, Beryl will continue to move WNW through Wed,
reaching near 14.1N 66W tonight, near 16.3N 73.6W Tue night, near
17.9N 80.8W Wed night, then inland across the Yucatan Peninsula
near 19.0N 88.5W by Fri morning. Beryl is expected to weaken
slowly Tue afternoon through landfall on Fri. A surge of fresh to
strong winds and squalls is expected to move across the tropical N
Atlantic Tue night through Wed, then across the eastern and
central Caribbean Wed through Fri, associated with a tropical
wave, AL96, which has the potential for tropical cyclone formation
during that time.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about Invest AL96 in the
central Atlantic.

Hurricane Beryl is south of the area near 13.2N 63.2W at 2100 UTC
moving WNW or 290 DEG at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 130
kt with gusts 160 kt. Minimum central pressure is 944 MB.
Otherwise, the Azores High associated ridge covers the subtropical
Atlantic waters supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds, except
for gentle to moderate S to SE winds E of the central and northern
Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, Beryl will continue to move WNW
and across the Caribbean through late Thu, and inland across the
Yucatan Peninsula Thu night, remaining south of the area.
Otherwise, central Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge
southwestward to N Florida to support gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to fresh
trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N. Winds and seas will
be locally strong north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the
next several days as Beryl moves through the Caribbean. A decaying
cold front may drop south of 31N Tue night through Wed night,
potentially stalling and lingering near 30N through the end of the
week.

$$
Ramos