667
AXNT20 KNHC 030557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jul 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0535 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 16.3N 73.5W at 03/0600 UTC or
220 nm ESE of Kingston, Jamaica, moving WNW at 19 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 125 kt with gusts to 155 kt. Peak seas are currently near 43
ft. Numerous strong convection is observed within 150 nm from the
center and scattered moderate convection is occurring from 14N to
22N and between 68W and 76W. Beryl is moving toward the west-
northwest and this general motion should continue through today,
followed by a turn more toward the west tonight or Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move rapidly across
the central Caribbean Sea and is forecast to pass near or over
Jamaica on later today. The center is expected to pass near or
over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and approach the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night. Beryl is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening
is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast
to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near
Jamaica later today and the Cayman Islands tonight. Additional
weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to
remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 17N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
along the trough axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave (Invest 96L) is near 53W, south
of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N and between
50W and 58W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong
to near gale-force easterly winds 12N to 19N and between 45W and
58W. Seas of 7-10 ft are found from 11N to 20N and between 43W
and 61W. Development, if any, of this system should be
slow to occur as it moves westward at 20 to 25 mph across the
western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Regardless of
development, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible
across portions of the Lesser Antilles today. The chance of
development is low in the next 48 hours and in the next 7 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 10 kt. The trough axis is moving across eastern
Honduras, Nicaragua and western Costa Rica. Scattered moderate
convection is found in the SW Caribbean, affecting portions of
eastern Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 11N25W and
then to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 08N43W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 15N and east of 23W.
Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to
09N and between 26W and 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
dangerous Hurricane Beryl, forecast to enter the Gulf this Friday.

An expansive subtropical ridge centered west of the Azores extends
southwestward to the Gulf of Mexico. The weak pressure gradient
across the basin supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas. A few showers are present in the eastern Bay of
Campeche, while generally dry conditions are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge across the northern Gulf will linger
through Thursday in advance of Beryl, now in the central
Caribbean. Major Hurricane Beryl is near 16.3N 73.5W at 2 AM EDT,
and is moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 125 kt with gusts to 155 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 946 mb. Beryl will move to 17.2N 75.4W Wed morning, 18.1N
78.8W Wed evening, 18.7N 82.3W Thu morning, 19.3N 85.5W Thu
evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.1N
88.3W Fri morning, and 21.0N 90.8W Fri evening. Beryl will change
little in intensity as it moves to22.7N 94.8W late Sat, then 25.0N
to 97.5W late Sun. There remains uncertainty in the track and
intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this
weekend. Interests in the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Beryl.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
dangerous Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea.

Aside from Hurricane Beryl, the strong subtropical ridge centered
over the central Atlantic is forcing fresh to locally near gale-
force easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean,
including the Windward Passage. This was confirmed by a recent
scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 10-20 ft between 67W and
71W and 6-10 ft in the remainder of the eastern Caribbean.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and slight to moderate
seas are prevalent in the SW and NW Caribbean, including the Gulf
of Honduras.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Beryl is near 16.3N 73.5W at 2
AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 125 kt with gusts to 155 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 946 mb. Beryl will move to 17.2N 75.4W Wed morning,
18.1N 78.8W Wed evening, 18.7N 82.3W Thu morning, 19.3N 85.5W Thu
evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.1N
88.3W Fri morning, and 21.0N 90.8W Fri evening. Beryl will change
little in intensity as it moves to22.7N 94.8W late Sat, then 25.0N
to 97.5W late Sun. A surge of fresh to strong winds and squalls
is expected to move across the tropical N Atlantic tonight through
Wed, then across the eastern and central Caribbean Wed through
early Fri, associated with a strong tropical wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
Invest 96L located east of the Lesser Antilles.

An expansive subtropical ridge centered west of the Azores
dominates the basin. The outermost squalls from Hurricane Beryl
are affecting the nearshore waters of northern Hispaniola. A
generally dry airmass maintains fairly tranquil conditions over
the remainder of the basin, outside of the deep tropics.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds south of 23N and west of 55W. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. Light to gentle and moderate seas prevail in
the rest of the SW North Atlantic. Farther east, moderate to
locally fresh NE winds are found west of 40W, along with seas of
5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Beryl is near 16.3N
73.5W at 2 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 19 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 155 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 946 mb. Beryl will move to 17.2N 75.4W Wed
morning, 18.1N 78.8W Wed evening, 18.7N 82.3W Thu morning, 19.3N
85.5W Thu evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near
20.1N 88.3W Fri morning, and 21.0N 90.8W Fri evening. Beryl will
change little in intensity as it moves to22.7N 94.8W late Sat,
then 25.0N to 97.5W late Sun. Otherwise, central Atlantic high
pressure will extend a ridge southwestward to N Florida to support
gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of
25N, with moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south
of 25N. Winds and seas will be locally strong north of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through the next
several days as Beryl moves through the Caribbean. A decaying cold
front will sink south of 31N through early Thu, then stall and
linger near 30N through the end of the week.

$$
Delgado