698
AXNT20 KNHC 050601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Beryl is centered near 19.8N 86.2W at 05/0600 UTC
or 80 nm SE of Tulum Mexico, moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Seas of 12 ft or greater are expected
within 150 NM NE quadrant, 120 NM SE quadrant, 90 NM SW quadrant,
and 180 NM NW quadrant, with seas to 35 ft. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 18N-22N and between
82W-88W. Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the
Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico
and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late Friday. These
swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 22N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 12N and between 33W and 45W. The broad tropical wave
is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is currently suppressing the
development of showers and thunderstorms north of 12N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave (Invest 96L) is along 72W, south
of 20N, from Hispaniola into eastern Colombia, moving westward at
around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to
20N and between 61W and 73W. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds
are occurring north of 15N and between 68W and 76W, including the
Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N38W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N38W to 07N57W. Scattered showers are noted
along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, located near the NE Yucatan peninsula.

The outermost northern squalls of Hurricane Beryl are affecting
the SE Gulf of Mexico waters, with the stronger convection noted
in the Yucatan Channel. Generally dry conditions prevail in the
rest of the basin. Aside from Beryl, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Beryl is near 19.8N 86.2W at 2
AM EDT, and is moving west at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
971 mb. Beryl will move inland to 20.0N 87.5W Fri morning, move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.9N 89.9W Fri
evening, 21.9N 92.1W Sat morning, 22.9N 94.0W Sat evening,
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.8N 95.5W Sun morning, and 24.7N
96.6W Sun evening. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm while
moving inland over 26.8N 98.6W late Mon. There remains some
uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf
of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Beryl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, located near the NE Yucatan peninsula. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for details on Invest 96L in the
central Caribbean.

Aside from Hurricane Beryl in the NW Caribbean and Invest 96L in
the central Caribbean, a few showers are present in the SW
Caribbean associated with diurnal storm activity over Panama and
Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate
to fresh easterly trade winds in the eastern Caribbean. Similar
winds are also found north of 14N and between 79W and 83W.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Beryl is near 19.8N 86.2W at 2
AM EDT, and is moving west at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are
100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is
971 mb. Beryl will move inland to 20.0N 87.5W Fri morning, move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.9N 89.9W Fri
evening, 21.9N 92.1W Sat morning, 22.9N 94.0W Sat evening,
strengthen to a hurricane near 23.8N 95.5W Sun morning, and
24.7N 96.6W Sun evening. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm
while moving inland over 26.8N 98.6W late Mon. A surge of fresh
to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls is expected to
move across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri,
associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds will then prevail across much of the central and NW
Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front extends from 31N59W to 27N65W and to a 1013 mb
low pressure near 30N75W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is evident on satellite imagery north of 24N and
between 57W and 73W. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are
occurring with the strongest convection.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
subtropical high pressure centered north of the area and a large
outbreak of the Saharan Air Layer. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to strong
northerly winds north of 14N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters
are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Beryl is moving through
the NW Caribbean and is forecast to remain away from the Atlantic
basin. A weak stationary front stretches from 31N59W to 30N78W.
The front will continue to be stalled and dissipate through the
end of the week. High pressure will prevail otherwise with mainly
gentle to moderate winds, locally fresh to strong near Hispaniola
at times.

$$
Delgado