614
AXNT20 KNHC 051003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 20.1N 86.9W at 05/0900 UTC or
30 nm E of Tulum Mexico, moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95
kt with gusts to 115 kt. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend 180 nm in
the NE quadrant, 120 nm in SE quadrant and 60 nm in the W
semicircle with seas to 35 ft. A WNW motion is expected during
the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on
the Yucatan Peninsula in the next few hours. Beryl is expected to
emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move
northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the
end of the weekend. Rapid weakening is expected after Beryl moves
inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, but slow
reintensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf
of Mexico. Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern
Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These
swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 05N to 11N and between 37W and 42W. The broad
tropical wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is currently
suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms north of
12N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 20N,
from Hispaniola into eastern Colombia, moving westward at around
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 17N and
between 70W and 76W. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are
occurring near this wave, including near the Windward Passage.
Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 07N41W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 37W and 59W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, located near the NE Yucatan peninsula.

The outermost northern squalls of Hurricane Beryl are affecting
the southern Gulf of Mexico waters, with the stronger convection
noted in the Yucatan Channel. Generally dry conditions prevail in
the rest of the basin. Aside from Beryl, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 20.1N 86.9W at 5 AM
EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 971 mb. Beryl will move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 20.7N 88.7W this afternoon, 21.7N 91.0W Sat
morning, 22.9N 93.1W Sat afternoon, 23.8N 94.8W Sun morning,
strengthen to a hurricane near 24.7N 96.1W Sun afternoon, and
26.0N 97.1W Mon morning. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm
while moving inland over 28.0N 98.4W early Tue. There remains some
uncertainty in the track forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf
of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Beryl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, located near the NE Yucatan peninsula. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the
central Caribbean.

Aside from Hurricane Beryl in the NW Caribbean and the tropical
wave in the central Caribbean, showers and thunderstorms are
present in the SW Caribbean near the eastern Pacific monsoon
trough. Earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds in the eastern Caribbean. Similar
winds are also found north of 14N and between 79W and 83W.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, Hurricane Beryl is near 20.1N 86.9W at 5 AM
EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 971 mb. Beryl will move inland and weaken to a
tropical storm near 20.7N 88.7W this afternoon, 21.7N 91.0W Sat
morning, 22.9N 93.1W Sat afternoon, 23.8N 94.8W Sun morning,
strengthen to a hurricane near 24.7N 96.1W Sun afternoon, and
26.0N 97.1W Mon morning. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm
while moving inland over 28.0N 98.4W early Tue. Meanwhile, a surge
of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls is
expected to move across the eastern and central Caribbean today
associated with a strong tropical wave. Fresh to strong E to SE
winds and rough seas will then prevail across much of the central
and NW Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N60W to 26N66W to
28N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident on satellite imagery north of 24N and between 56W and
73W. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are occurring with
the strongest convection.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
subtropical high pressure centered north of the area and a large
outbreak of the Saharan Air Layer. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to strong
northerly winds north of 17N and east of 25W. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Beryl is moving through
the NW Caribbean and is forecast to remain away from the Atlantic
basin. A weakening stationary front stretches from 31N60W to
28N78W. The front will continue to dissipate through through
tonight. High pressure will prevail otherwise with mainly gentle
to moderate winds, locally fresh to strong near Hispaniola at
times.

$$
AKR