659
AXNT20 KNHC 051749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 20.7N 88.3W at 05/1500 UTC or
90 nm ESE of Progreso Mexico, moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft, highest seas
being over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SE Gulf
S of 25N between 84W and 91W. Beryl is expected to emerge over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move
northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the
end of the weekend. Continued rapid weakening is expected as
Beryl moves farther inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula
today, but slow re-intensification is expected once Beryl moves
back over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, Beryl is forecast to move
northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the
end of the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 07N to
21N with axis near 42W, moving westward at 15 kt. Widely scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 35W
and 45W.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean extending S of 20N with axis
near 76W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted S of 19N between 68W and 79W.
Fresh E to SE winds and seas to 7 ft are ahead and behind this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N25W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 07N42W to 06N55W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical wave, widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 13W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, located over the Yucatan peninsula.

Hurricane Beryl is near 20.7N 88.3W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving
west-northwest at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with
gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Except
for the Yucatan Channel the SE Gulf of Mexico W of 85W, and the
eastern Bay of Campeche, light to gentle variable winds and slight
to moderate are across the remainder basin being supported by a
weak ridge covering the nothern half of the region. The ridge is
anchored by 1015 mb centers of high pressure, one near 27N94W and
the othe near 20N87W.

For the forecast, Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm near
21.4N 90.1W this evening, move to 22.5N 92.2W Sat morning, 23.6N
94.1W Sat evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.6N 95.6W Sun
morning, 25.6N 96.6W Sun evening, and 26.8N 97.5W Mon morning.
Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near
29.0N 98.0W early Tue. There remains some uncertainty in the track
forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Beryl.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
Hurricane Beryl, located near the NE Yucatan peninsula. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the
central Caribbean.

Hurricane Beryl is inland the Yucatan Peninsula near 20.7N 88.3W
at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Maximum
sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum
central pressure is 980 mb. Aside from Beryl, a tropical wave is
supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate to rough
seas E of its axis, over the central and eastern Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh SE winds are also ahead of the wave, across
Jamaica adjacent waters, including portions of the Windward
Passage. Aside from the winds and seas, this wave is generating
scattered heavy showers and tstms over the central and portions of
the SW Caribbean. Otherwise, fresh to strong SE winds and rough
seas associated with Beryl continue to affect the far NW
Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm near
21.4N 90.1W this evening, move to 22.5N 92.2W Sat morning, 23.6N
94.1W Sat evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.6N 95.6W Sun
morning, 25.6N 96.6W Sun evening, and 26.8N 97.5W Mon morning.
Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near
29.0N 98.0W early Tue. Meanwhile, a surge of fresh to strong
winds, rough seas, and numerous squalls is expected to move across
the central Caribbean today associated with a strong tropical
wave. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas will then
prevail across much of the central and NW Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The remnants of a stationary front, analyzed as a surface trough,
extends from 31N59W to 26N68W to 28N77W. Scattered heavy showers
and tstms are ongoing across most the SW N Atlantic waters E of
the Bahamas and N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh
S to SE winds are between 56W and 68W associated with this broad
area of convection being supported by a middle to upper level low.

The remainder of the subtropical a portions of the tropical Atlantic
are under the influence of the Azores High associated ridge,which
is supporting gentle to moderate E winds across the central basin.
Over the E subtropical Atlantic, fresh NE winds and rough seas are
ongoing due to a tighter pressure gradient. Otherwise, a large
outbreak of the Saharan Air Layer continue to race behind the
tropical wave over the central Atlantic and engulfs it west of its
axis as well.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will
dissipate through tonight. High pressure will prevail otherwise
with mainly gentle to moderate winds, locally fresh to strong near
Hispaniola at times.

$$
Ramos