484
AXNT20 KNHC 022321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jul 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Beryl is centered near 15.9N 70.8W at 02/2100 UTC or
110 nm SSE of Isla Beata Dominican Republic, moving WNW at 19
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Seas 12 ft or
greater within 135 nm W semicircle, 270 nm NE quadrant and 210 nm
SE quadrant, with seas to 40 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate
to strong convection prevails S of 21N between 67W-73W. On the
forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the
central Caribbean Sea tonight and is forecast to pass near or over
Jamaica on Wednesday. The center is expected to pass near or over
the Cayman Islands Wednesday night or early Thursday and approach
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Thursday night. Large swells
generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands during the next day or so. Swells will impact the
southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and begin affecting
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through midweek. These swells are
expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 24W from 17N southward, and moving westward at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N
between the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea coast and 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave (Invest 96L) is near 50W from
17N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 49W and 56W. Fresh
with strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are found from 11N to
18N between 43W and 53W. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for any development of this system while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 kt across the western tropical
Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible as the system
crosses the Lesser Antilles through midweek. Please refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from the Cayman
Islands southward across eastern Costa Rica into the Pacific Ocean.
The wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails S of 15N between 79W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 19N16W to 08N33W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 13N48W. Scattered showers are
noted within 200 nm S of the boundaries.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of
northwestern Colombia, mainly S of 11N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about dangerous Hurricane
Beryl which may impact the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 27N89W. A surface trough
extends from 28N92W to the low to 30N85W. These features are
producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
north-central and northeastern Gulf. Otherwise, a modest surface
ridge extends west- northwestward from southern Florida to a 1016
mb high near 27N95W. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas
prevail across the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the ridge across the northern Gulf will linger through
Thursday in advance of Beryl, now in the central Caribbean. Major
Hurricane Beryl is near 15.9N 70.8W at 2100 UTC, moving W-NW at
19 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt.
Minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Beryl will continue W-NW
across the Caribbean and begin to weaken slowly, moving inland
across the Yucatan near 20.2N 88.5W  Fri morning. Beryl is
expected to emerge across the SW Gulf of Mexico near 21.3N 91.4W
Fri evening as a strong tropical storm, and move NW to near 22.5N
94.5W Sat afternoon, then to the Mexican coast near 24.5N 97.5W
Sun afternoon. Interests across the west and northwest Gulf should
remain vigilant for future forecasts of Beryl.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
dangerous Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea.

Outside of the direct influence of Beryl, fresh to strong
easterly winds and seas of 10 to 20 ft are evident south of the
Mona Passage and Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
8 to 14 ft seas are evident elsewhere in the eastern basin.
Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the
central southwestern basin and near the Windward Passage. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the
rest of the Caribbean Sea, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, Beryl will continue W-NW across the basin and
begin to weaken slowly, reaching near 17.7N 77.1W Wed afternoon,
near 19.1N 83.9W Thu afternoon, and inland across the Yucatan near
20.2N 88.5W Fri morning. Beryl will weaken to a tropical storm as
it emerges across the SW Gulf of Mexico Fri night and moves NW
through Sat. A surge of fresh to strong winds and squalls is
expected to move across the tropical N Atlantic tonight through
Wed, then across the eastern and central Caribbean Wed through
early Fri, associated with a strong tropical wave (Invest 96L).

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough curves southwestward from northwest of
Bermuda across 31N71W and the northwest Bahamas to the Great
Bahama Bank. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the
southeastern Florida coast and northwestern/central Bahamas.
Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A vigorous Atlantic Ridge stretches southwestward from a 1033 mb
Azores High across 31N54W to beyond central Florida. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft are noted north of 25N between
70W and the Florida/Georgia coast. To the east, gentle to
moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 8 ft seas exist north of 22N
between 35W and 70W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong N
to NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident north of 18N between
the northwest Africa coast and 35W. Farther south including the
Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in
moderate northerly swell are found north of 10N between the
central Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N
to 25N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles but outside the Invest
96L, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are
noted. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with 4 to
6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the central Atlantic high pressure
will extend a ridge southwestward to N Florida to support gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with
moderate to fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N.
Winds and seas will be locally strong north of Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through the next several
days as Hurricane Beryl moves through the Caribbean. A decaying
cold front will sink south of 31N tonight through early Thu, then
stall and linger near 30N through the end of the week.

$$
ERA