036
AXNT20 KNHC 031802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jul 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Category 4 Hurricane Beryl is centered near 17.1N 76.1W at
03/1500 UTC or 70 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica, moving WNW at 16 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are currently
near 42 ft. Numerous strong convection is from 14N to 20N between
71W and 78W. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will pass
near or over Jamaica during the next several hours. After that,
the center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands
tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico Thursday night or early Friday. Some weakening is forecast
during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at
or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica
later today and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday.
Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is
forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean.
Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to
impact the Cayman Islands later today and spread toward portions
of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or
so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. Please consult products from your local weather
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Beryl
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde Islands extending
from 04N to 20N with axis near 29W, moving westward at 15 to 20
kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly linked to the monsoon
and ITCZ from 06N to 11N between 25W and 33W.

A tropical wave (Invest 96L) is moving across the Lesser Antilles
with axis near 61W early this afternoon. The wave is moving
westward very rapidly westward at 25-30 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 10N to 16N between 57W and
65W. Associated winds are 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 12 ft.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur
while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward across the
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles
today. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A tropical wave formerly in the far western Caribbean is now
inland Central America with axis near 89W and is not generating
convection over the Caribbean waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues SW to 09N29W to 06N35W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 04N43W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm S of the monsoon/ITCZ between 26W and
40W. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on
convection.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
dangerous Hurricane Beryl, forecast to enter the Gulf Thu night
and Fri.

Hurricane Beryl is near 17.1N 76.1W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving
west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with
gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 954 mb.

High pressure along the eastern United States extends a ridge
across the eastern and central Gulf, and is supporting light to
gentle E to SE winds along with slight seas to 3 ft basin-wide.
Off SE Mexico, a surface trough is generating scattered showers
over the offshore waters between Tampico and Veracruz. Another
trough extends from the Florida Panhandle westward to southern
Louisiana and is generating scattered showers over Alabama,
Pensacola and Mississippi adjacent waters.

For the forecast, a weak ridge across the northern Gulf will
linger through Thu in advance of Beryl, now approaching Jamaica in
the west-central Caribbean. Beryl is expected to maintain a W-NW
motion and weaken slowly, moving inland over the Yucatan Peninsula
Fri morning near 19.7N 88.2W, and weakening to a tropical storm.
Beryl is expected to emerge off the western Yucatan Peninsula near
20.5N 90.7W Fri evening. Beryl will then turn more NW and
strengthen to a hurricane over the Gulf near 23.5N 96W Sun
morning. There remains some uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Interests in the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Beryl.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on the latest details on
dangerous Hurricane Beryl. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea.

Major Hurricane Beryl is near 17.1N 76.1W at 11 AM EDT, moving
west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with
gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb.
Aside from Hurricane Beryl, fast moving tropical wave (AL96) that
was E of the Lesser Antilles early this morning is already racing
across the E Caribbean and generating scattered heavy showers and
tstms. Aside from the convection associated with the wave, winds
to 30 kt and seas to 12 ft are also accompanying this wave that
currently has low chances of development. See the Tropical Waves
Section for further details.

With the Azores High associated ridge in place just N of the
basin, fresh to strong trade winds prevail in the central
Caribbean while NE winds of the same magnitude are ongoing in the
NW basin. Fresh to strong winds over the central region are
confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. The eastern extension of
the Pacific monsoon trough supports heavy showers and tstms over
the SW Caribbean S of 14N. Rough seas in the 8-12 ft range
associated with Major Hurricane Beryl continue to affect the
central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin as well.

For the forecast, Beryl is expected to maintain a W-NW motion and
weaken slowly, reaching near 17.8N 78.7W this evening, near 18.5N
82.3W Thu morning, near 19N 85.5W Thu evening, then move inland
over the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19.7N 88.2W, where it
will weaken to a tropical storm. Beryl will then turn more NW and
move across the western Gulf of Mexico Fri evening through Sun
night. A surge of fresh to strong winds, rough seas, and numerous
squalls is expected to move across the tropical N Atlantic today,
then across the eastern and central Caribbean late today through
early Fri, associated with a strong tropical wave (AL96). Fresh
to strong E to SE winds will then prevail across much of the
central and western Caribbean this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on
Invest 96L located east of the Lesser Antilles, and on dangerous
Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean Sea.

Major Hurricane Beryl is approaching Jamaica near 17.1N 76.1W at
11 AM EDT, moving west-northwest at 16 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 952 mb. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
ongoing over the offshore waters N of 27N between 57W and 67W.
Scatterometer data show fresh to strong SW winds associated with
what could be a pre-frontal trough ahead of a stationary front
just N of the area. Scattered showers are also ongoing in the
Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage as
Beryl is just S of the area. Otherwise, the entire subtropical
Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores High
associated ridge, which is maintaining gentle to moderate NE to E
winds across most of the region, except for fresh winds across the
Greater Antilles adjacent waters. Seas across the region are
moderate in the 4 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, Beryl is expected to maintain a
W-NW motion across the Caribbean and weaken slowly, moving inland
over the Yucatan Peninsula Fri morning near 19.7N 88.2W, where it
will weaken to a tropical storm. Beryl will then move NW over the
Gulf of Mexico and strengthen to a hurricane over the Gulf Sat
through Sun. Otherwise, central Atlantic high pressure will extend
a ridge southwestward to N Florida to support gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas north of 25N, with moderate to
fresh trades and mainly moderate seas south of 25N. Winds and seas
will be locally strong north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and into
the Windward Passage through the next several days as Beryl moves
through the Caribbean. A decaying cold front will sink south of
31N through early Thu, then stall and linger near 30N through the
end of the week.

$$
Ramos