537
FNUS53 KAPX 011848
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...Increasing Rain Chances Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION... Clouds will overspread much of northern lower Michigan
tonight as low pressure slowly moves closer to Lake Superior, leading
to moisture increasing across the region. Shower chances infiltrate
northwest lower for much of the day, with lesser coverage east of I-75
(including Huron National Forest). High temps will be below normal,
generally topping out in the low-to-mid 70s. Increase in clouds will
lead to elevated RHs, though with somewhat of a split bag across the
region... 50s and 60s RHs across NW lower and upper 40s to lower 50s
across NE lower. All in all, still a pretty low fire risk day. Showers
and thunder expected Tuesday night, some localized amounts surpassing
1.00" of rainfall possible. This should deliver another jolt of
moisture to keep things on the greener side as the anomalously wet
growing season continues for most. Drier conditions build on Wednesday,
with highs in the 80s, but lingering moisture will keep RHs in the 50s.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-020845-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........76-81 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200, then scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (531).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered
                    showers until 2400, then rain likely.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (79).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.23- 0.53 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain until 1200,
                    then scattered showers.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (643).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.22 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-020845-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....52-57...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (31).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (583).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (68).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.39 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain until
                    1200Numerous showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (814).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.19 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-020845-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers until 1200, then scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter...except 6 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (455).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered
                    showers until 2400, then rain.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (73).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.35- 0.61 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain until 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (583).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.18 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-020845-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (473).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Scattered
                    showers until 2400, then rain likely and chance
                    of thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (76).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.29- 0.82 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain until 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (686).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.13- 0.26 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-020845-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (39).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (649).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered
                    showers until 2400, then chance of rain.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (64).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.08- 0.62 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Rain until
                    1200Scattered showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (928).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.18 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

HAD