138
FXUS63 KAPX 021722
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
122 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and some thunderstorms tonight, with locally
  heavy rainfall.

- Trending dry for the Independence Day holiday (Thursday).

- Heavy rain and stronger storms may return Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Really, not a whole lot to change to that which was inherited.
Rain, largely of the light variety, continues to spread
northeast into the area this morning. This lead area of rain is
outrunning much better upstream forcing and continues to run
into a much drier low level environment. Would expect this rain
to continue to erode in overall organization through this
afternoon, but still expecting at least the threat for light
rain and sprinkles to expand further northeast with time.
Definitely not expecting any significant rains today....with the
heavier rain threat holding off until this evening. A bit on
the cooler side today, with high temperatures mostly in the
lower and middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Pattern/synopsis: High pressure has slid east to upstate NY, and
return flow is underway in the western and central lakes
(especially west). Low pressure is over southern Manitoba, with
a cold front extending south across the eastern Dakotas. Aloft,
500mb ridging heads downstream. The most prominent shortwave
trof moves across the upper MS Valley and western lakes late
tonight.

Forecast: Showers and some embedded thunder are moving across
central WI. This will be knocking on the door of MBL by 12Z/8am.
Remnant showers will make some inroads into western areas this
morning, but there`s no instability here yet. No mention of
thunder this morning, just some light showers. This afternoon,
destabilization occurs in southern WI/northern IL. This air
will advect n and ne-ward, regenerating deep convection.
However, forcing here is still muddled and unfocused, and better
instability is upstream. Sct showers and a few embedded
t-storms will result, with thunder mainly staying w of M-37 in
nw lower MI.

Into tonight, an increasing low-level jet will interact with the
incoming shortwave trof. Moisture transport will increase, with
Pwats of 1.75" or higher pushing into the area. Showers and
storms will become more numerous, especially late evening and
overnight. Instability present here remains meager, and don`t
see a svr threat emerging. But reasonable QPF is forecast,
especially north of a CAD-Rogers City line. Localized 1-2" rains
are possible; unlikely to be a significant problem, though if
high end amounts fall on TVC specifically in a short time
period, perhaps that changes. For now, best QPF is most likely
north of TVC.

Max temps in the 70s; enough clouds to keep things from getting
too warm. Sticky tonight though, with lows from near 60f to the
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Midlevel ridging currently over the Upper Midwest region will
quickly be replaced by upstream troughing, turning the Great Lakes
region to a wetter/more active pattern at the start of the long
term. Stronger sw flow in the lower levels will transport
moisture into the region, proving enough fuel to source multiple
rounds of showers and storms throughout the forecast period.

The first round of showers and storms will be at the start of the
long term as a cold front drapes across Michigan. Post frontal
passage should provide a day of dry conditions for the Fourth,
but will quickly transition back to a more active weather
pattern as a second trough returns to the Great Lakes region
(while deepening). This wet pattern is expected to return as
early as Friday and continue at times through the entirety of
the long term.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

A cold front continues showers and storms this Wednesday. No
severe weather or heavy rainfall expected at this time: A cold
front will be draped along Lake Michigan by 12Z Wednesday
continuing showers and storms. Most of the forcing will be
overnight before the long term period, but light amounts of
measurable precip is expected to persist during the daytime on
Wednesday. No risk of severe weather is expected during the
daytime Wednesday as lingering storms will finally clear by
Wednesday evening.

Surface low pressure returns active weather this Friday into
early next week. Watching for storm potential on Friday:
Shortwave midlevel troughing currently over British Columbia
will develop surface low pressure over the Canadian rockies and
progress to the Great Lakes region by the end of the week.
Current ensembles showing evidence of moderate instability to
the region as moderately strong midlevel flow will advect
southerly moisture into the CWA. Best chance of storms is
Friday, but showers are expected to potentially persist through
Sunday, leaving Northern Michigan with a relatively blah holiday
weekend. Too early to advertise QPF totals or potential for
severity of storms, but more details will come with future model
runs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions expected into this evening under high based
clouds and very light showers/sprinkles. More organized showers
expected to develop overnight, bringing a MVFR to IFR overcast
with them. May have a few rumbles of thunder as well, but
nothing too significant expected. Slow improvement as we head
through Wednesday morning. Low level wind shear tonight as
surface winds decrease. Winds look to become a bit gusty again
by later Wednesday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ341-
     342-344>346.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB/MLR
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB