Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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876 FXUS63 KAPX 300713 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 313 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably cool today and tonight. High swim risk today. - Unsettled Tuesday/Wednesday with a heavy rainfall threat. - Dry forecast trend continues for Fourth of July holiday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Pattern/synopsis: Departing cold front is crossing the lower lakes early this morning. A secondary front is over eastern Superior, and north of Lk Huron. High pressure is over the northern plains. The high will build toward the western lakes today, and over our heads tonight. This will gradually minor out the secondary boundary. Forecast: Healthy amount of low-level moisture in the area, resulting in abundant low clouds. Places near Saginaw Bay have the most breaks in the cloud cover, but there are some smaller holes elsewhere. Per surface obs and radar, we are scavenging up some shallow precip...especially in the eastern UP, but also at times in nw and n central lower MI. APX radar (and satellite) very much has the look of an activated Lake MI, with wind- parallel banding. With upstream air temps in the upper 40s, and northern Lake MI water temps in the upper 50s, that is reasonable. Well, it is the last day of June and thus entirely /unreasonable/ for lake effect to be occurring, but what can you do. Moisture will continue to get shallower, as inversion heights fall with the approaching high. Some drizzle or sprinkles remain possible into perhaps mid-morning. Eastern upper MI (with less of a lake contribution with colder Superior upstream) should trend to partly sunny by late morning, and mostly sunny by early afternoon. Clearing in northern lower MI will be a little slower, but will progress from nw to se with time. Partly sunny breaks out by early afternoon, and mostly sunny by late afternoon. Mostly clear skies tonight, but with some patchy fog potential, especially west of I-75 in both peninsulas. Breezy nw winds with overlake instability will support increase wave action on some beaches. A high swim risk will continue on much of Lake MI and part of Lake Huron. Highs ranging thru the 60s today; late June sun will be able to do some work, even with cold advection and morning clouds. Lows tonight mostly 40s; would not rule out upper 30s in interior cold spots. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 313 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Pattern Forecast: Split long wave trough from Atlantic Canada down into the Mid Atlantic to start the long term forecast cycle Monday...with a short wave ridge encompassing the nation`s midsection and troughing over the western states. Ridge axis will cross the Great Lakes and end up to the east on Tuesday as height falls spread into the northern/ central Plains. Short wave trough and associated baroclinic zone expected to reach the upper Lakes Wednesday...and linger across Michigan for the Fourth of July (i.e., jet axis overhead). Passage of another short wave trough looking probable to start next weekend. 1023mb surface high encompassing the northern/central Plains tonight will build east over the next 36 hours and be centered over the Great Lakes Monday...near 1028mb which is strong for the start of July (99th percentile for surface pressure). High moves toward the eastern seaboard Tuesday along with the short wave ridge...allowing southerly warm/moist return flow to set up into the upper Lakes. Midweek height falls expected to push a cold front across Michigan in the Wednesday time frame. What remains of this boundary will probably get hung up across the Ohio Valley for Thursday...perhaps returning north as a warm front ahead of next short wave trough Friday. Primary Forecast Concerns: Unsettled Tuesday/Wednesday with a heavy rainfall threat: Return flow around departing anticyclone is expected to bring a substantial push of moisture into the Midwest and Great Lakes for the Tuesday/ Wednesday time period...precipitable water values at or above 1.75". Broad area of warm advection/isentropic ascent expected to spread rain into areas west of I-75 Tuesday morning...then east during the afternoon. Best QPF potential looks to be Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with moisture transport focused into northern Michigan ahead of a cold front that is forecast to cross the area later Wednesday (may see a drying trend across at least northern Lower during the afternoon). Marginal risk in the new Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook (12z Tuesday - 12z Wednesday) covers eastern Upper/northwest Lower Michigan (no change from yesterday`s Day 4 outlook). Probabilities of more than 1 inch of rainfall range generally from 10 to 30 percent. Will see how this trends once higher resolution guidance gets into the mix (which won`t occur in earnest until the 12z Monday forecast cycle). But the potential is certainly worth watching and mentioning in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Dry forecast trend continues for Fourth of July holiday: Out of what may be an unsettled week beyond Monday...the Fourth of July holiday on Thursday still holding on to the dry forecast. Cold front that comes through Wednesday is expected to settle far enough south to minimize precipitation probabilities. So will continue the optimistic trend of a dry/warm Fourth (high temperatures should be pretty close to normal) with little wind. Rain chances return for Friday: Another short wave trough and associated surface reflection expected to impact the upper Lakes on Friday...which will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. This activity may linger into Saturday but that is more uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 MVFR cigs will hold over our area overnight into Sunday morning in the wake of a cold front that moved thru our region during the evening. Large area of high pressure will begin to settle into the Western Great Lakes on Sunday. Strengthening subsidence and the arrival of drier air will lead to diminishing low clouds and VFR conditions for Sunday afternoon and night. NW surface winds of 10 to 20 kts overnight will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts on Sunday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MIZ016-018-020-021-025-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321. && $$ SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JPB AVIATION...MLR