Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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921 FXUS63 KAPX 302300 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers possible, especially NW lower and eastern upper Tuesday. - Potential for more widespread showers and thunder (including heavy rainfall) Tuesday night into Wednesday. - Trending dry for the Independence Day holiday (Thursday). - Additional unsettled weather looks possible heading into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Current satellite and webcams show low clouds thinning out over northern lower. Mostly clear skies over eastern upper this afternoon. Current surface temperatures are cooler today, in the 50s and 60s for most of northern MI as higher pressure settles in. There is still time for temperatures to creep up this afternoon as the sun peaks out more. Tonight, drier air and calm winds will allow temperatuers to drop into the high 30s and low 40s. RH values will be very high tonight, however the moisture will be very shallow. Patchy fog will be likely in low spots with dense vegetation and/or lakes and rivers. Upper level ridging moves overhead Monday. Mostly clear skies and drier air will allow temperatures to warm Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: 500mb ridge axis will be moving just to the east of the area by the time we get to Tuesday, with troughing digging into the northern Plains and southern Canadian prairies. Result will be a corridor of enhanced 500mb flow directed from the central and southern Plains into the upper Great Lakes for Tuesday and Wednesday. This should lead to a period of showers and thunder... first more scattered / light Tuesday, potentially turning more widespread / heavier Tuesday night into Wednesday as a corridor of low level jet driven moisture pivots overhead of the region as a cold front forces its way into the Great Lakes region. This front will clear northern Michigan by Thursday, bringing a brief return of drier air before another trough digs into the region for the end of the week... thus returning more unsettled weather to close out the week. Primary Forecast Concerns: Tuesday / Wednesday: Signals are beginning to point to the potential for a dry start to the day Tuesday across much of the region. Core of the 850mb flow (moisture transport) will be displaced to the west, resulting in any shower / storm complexes that move toward northern MI struggling mightily owing to the lingering influences of the departing surface high pressure. Given the "top-down saturation" that will have to happen, expecting most shower activity to favor west of a Houghton Lake to Rogers City line owing to better moisture proximity. Any rain that falls Tuesday during the day will probably be on the lighter side as well. The narrative changes slightly on Tuesday night as the deeper moisture plume pivots overhead. Showers and storms are set to initiate over the Corn Belt, growing upscale as they move through the mean SW flow into Wisconsin and across Lake Michigan. There will be two distinct areas to watch with this complex of storms as it moves toward Michigan: where the core of the deeper / more persistent convection goes (thus, the more efficient rainfall rates) and how the resulting stratiform (non-storm) rain field evolves. While we will be in the deeper moisture, there is some things that may work against this... the better forcing (as of now) appears to favor just to the south, thus suppressing the more persistent storms just to our south and west (this is supported by the latest WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall outlook, focused more on Wisconsin, with just a Marginal Risk leaking into NW lower Michigan). That being said, with this setup, a least a period of stratiform rain seems like a solid bet Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the front passes through the region. While this stratiform rain probably won`t be torrential like the convective rain will, the moisture rich atmosphere will likely be able to still produce a persistent shield of steadier and efficient rain. Where exactly the potential convective max occurs will have to be sorted out in the coming forecast cycles. Independence Day: Post-frontal airmass should result in a bit of a drier day Thursday as a thin area of high pressure glances by the region. Holiday itself looks to see a mix of sun and clouds (perhaps even becoming mostly cloudy south and west) with seasonable highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Next weekend: Another digging trough into the northern Plains will try to elicit a moisture return response into the Great Lakes region by Friday (hence cloudier skies south on Thursday). Better forcing moves in as low pressure treks east into Wisconsin, which should (in theory) increase showers chances Friday night and leaking into the first half of the weekend... continuing a theme of unsettled weather intruding on weekends this summer across northern Michigan. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Large area of strong high pressure will becoming centered over Michigan tonight and will hold over our area thru Monday. Clear skies and solid VFR conditions are expected...although some patchy fog may develop late tonight...especially around the MBL/TVC/PLN areas. NW winds of 10 to 20 kts will diminish below 10 kts by late evening...allowing for lake breeze development by around midday Monday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016-018-020-021-025-031-098-099. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...HAD AVIATION...MLR