618
FXUS64 KAMA 011641
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1141 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Overall not much change was needed with this update. Increased
temperatures by a few degrees across the southeast given
observational trends this morning. Also updated PoPs for this
evening which resulted in a slight increase for the northwest
based on the latest 12z model output. Otherwise, today will be a
breezy and warm day across the region with clear skies until the
storms move in to the west/northwest later this evening.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The start of this holiday work week is still on schedule to start
hot, but maybe not as dry as originally expected. Currently
models are still in agreement that the 500mb high pressure system
to our east will slowly build back over the Panhandles today.
However, the main center of this high is expected to be just to
our east. The placement of the center will allow for good
southwesterly flow to move across the lower and mid-levels which
will allow for decent warm air to flow over the Panhandles. With
the warm air in place, look for temperatures to rise further with
most locations in the 90s to triples digits. Some of our hotter
locations, like the Palo Duro Canyon, will also have to be
monitored for the day as they have to potential to be just shy of
the Heat Advisory criteria. On the other side of this however, the
just eastward placement of the upper-level high has also open the
door for storms to form in the late afternoon and evening time
frame for the Western Panhandles. At this time, the latest CAMs
are suggesting that most of these storms will likely form off the
mountains to our west in New Mexico and drift into our area with
the southwesterly flow. Potential for severe is not the best, with
most models suggesting less than 1000 MLCAPE over the area and
DCAPE not that great either. Still a isolated strong to severe
storm could happen, but expect the window to be brief with many
models seeing more shower like set up that dwindles as we head
into the overnight.

Heading into Tuesday, model agreement is still projecting for
Tuesday to be our hottest day of the week with many locations
peaking near or above triple digits for the day. Potential is
present for Heat Advisories for that afternoon, especially in the
Palo Duro Canyon where temperatures could easily reach 105
degrees. However up in the north, these temperature may not come
to be if the expected cold front arrives early. Currently most
model are on the side of seeing the Panhandles reach peak heating
with many not see the upper-level trough and the front arrive till
around 22 to 23 Z. However once it does begin to reach into our
area, look for chances for showers and thunderstorms to increase
as this trough is expected to shift flow and bring back good
pockets of moisture on both sides of the front. As for severe
potential, most models are seeing better chances than Monday,
especially in the North Eastern Panhandles. As it stands,
potential is present in the northeast to see pockets of 2000 to
3000 MLCAPE in the north east with effective bulk shear getting
above 40 kt. The latest model runs do not have very good 0 to 1 or
0 to 3 shear present which makes potential for a tornado very low,
but given how strong the shift in direction is along the frontal
boundary a quick spin-up can not be ruled out on any storm moving
along it. Otherwise, secondary threat may turn to flooding with
PWATS rising upwards of 1.75 inches across a good portion of the
Panhandle.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

A cold front may stall in the Panhandles on Wednesday, and this
feature will likely be a focus for showers and thunderstorms.  A
stronger cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles
Thursday afternoon.  At this time, the front is not expected to
arrive fast enough to keep the 100`s away from the southern Texas
Panhandle, but the Oklahoma Panhandle and the far northern Texas
Panhandle may be spared the 100`s.  This front, depending on how
fast it moves will also be a focus for showers and thunderstorms. On
Friday, the surface flow turns more to the east and this upslope
flow coupled with a northwest flow aloft should help to support a
round of showers and thunderstorms moving this way from the
mountains.  The only fly in the ointment, may the amount of
available instability and moisture in the post-frontal airmass.
Saturday and Sunday we should see more rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving this way from the mountains under a northwest
flow aloft.  High temperatures may stay in the 80`s on Friday, but
will be right back above normal by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Latest guidance is still expecting surface winds to pick up at all
three terminals later this morning. Expect winds to be mostly out
of the southwest with gust nearing the 25 to 30 kt range with KGUY
expecting to see the highest speeds. These winds should last
through evening hours before slowing for the overnight. Meanwhile,
chances for showers and thunderstorms still exist for the western
portions of the Panhandles. However, confidence in any impacts to
terminals is too low for mention in current package. Otherwise,
VFR conditions continue for all three terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                97  75 101  72 /   0   0  10  40
Beaver OK                  99  77  99  68 /   0  10  20  50
Boise City OK              94  69  94  64 /  10  40  20  40
Borger TX                 102  79 106  73 /   0  10  20  50
Boys Ranch TX              99  75 102  70 /  10  10  20  40
Canyon TX                  96  73  99  71 /   0   0  10  40
Clarendon TX               99  75 101  73 /   0   0  10  20
Dalhart TX                 97  70  98  66 /   0  30  20  40
Guymon OK                  98  73  97  67 /   0  20  20  50
Hereford TX                98  73 101  71 /   0  10  10  30
Lipscomb TX                99  77 102  70 /   0   0  10  50
Pampa TX                   97  76 101  71 /   0   0  20  40
Shamrock TX                99  77 103  75 /   0   0  10  20
Wellington TX             101  76 104  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...11