965
FXUS64 KAMA 281908
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

As of this afternoon latest observations sensors where seeing a
decent southwesterly breezy make its way across the Panhandles
thanks to a lee-side surface low present just to our northwest.
This low and associated breeze has help dry out the southwestern
Panhandles slightly and will be key to our expected heat for the
rest of the CWA. As it stands most models are still expecting the
Panhandles to hit the high 90s to triple digits, with many
locations already in the low to mid 90s this early afternoon.
Given this potential as well as the current present high humidity,
a Heat Advisory remains in places for the Palo Duro Canyon and
the eastern most counties of the combine Panhandles until 8 PM
tonight. As we head towards those later evening and overnight
hours, models are still on track for a trough to start pushing
into the area. This trough will cause the surface low to push off
and winds to decrease later tonight. On the other side, potential
for activity does remain present with the arrival of the upper-
level trough in the northern Panhandles. However, the recent CAMs
have not been very enthusiastic about the potential with a recent
runs only seeing a couple of showers late tonight. Still there is
some potential for a storm to pulse up enough to leave a severe
wind gust upon it collapse with models seeing DCAPE around 1500
J/kg.

Better chances for activity may have to wait till Saturday when
many of the models are expecting the associated frontal boundary
to move into the Panhandles. The positioning of this boundary will
very much determine the location of activity for the day as it
will serve as the main lifting mechanism for the day. As for the
potential for severe, once again this may solely focused on the
position of the boundary with many models seeing the best CAPE and
shear around it. As it stands most models are seeing MLCAPE values
run around 1500 J/kg with effective bulk running as high as 35 kt.
However, once a storms gets off the boundary those values
significantly drop off which will make it hard for something to
maintain itself. Instead, the threat for that day may once again
turn to flooding, especially if the models are correct and the
boundary stalls much like what happened a few weeks ago. While the
PWAT values are not as good as the last event, models are still
projecting 1.5 inch or greater present for most of the Panhandles.
Of course this will also play a factor in our temperatures for the
day as well. Should none of this come to pass, then it would be
possible for temperature to once again reach the triple digits
though current best chances of those values are only present in
the south.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Activity may look to follow into Sunday as models are still seeing
potential for the frontal boundary to remain stalled over the
Panhandles through the late afternoon time frame. Once again main
threat may still be flooding as showers and thunderstorms could be
a continuation of activity Saturday. However, a few severe storms
could still be present that afternoon. Regardless, the Panhandles
should begin to dry out later that evening with the exit of the
trough and frontal boundary. Heading into the Holiday workweek,
Monday and Tuesday will look to be dry as the upper-level high
pressure system moves back over the Panhandles for both days. This
will allow temperatures to once again climb with potential to see
widespread triple digit temperatures Tuesday. However, dont
expect this to last into the Forth of July as many model are
seeing a new system move across starting Wednesday. This trough
will aid in pushing the upper-level high back east and in turn
open the Panhandles back up to good low-level moisture. Expect
PWAT values to once again rise above 1.5 inches for most locations
with chances of showers and thunderstorms present each afternoon
clear into the Holiday weekend. Meanwhile, temperatures will
slightly lower with all the expected activity, but still look for
most locations to be in the 90s for the rest of the period.


Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Breezy southwesterly winds are expected to continue at the
terminals through the afternoon and evening with the arrival of
the upper-level trough seeing winds slow. Potential for showers
still do exist for late this evening and overnight hours with KGUY
the more likely terminal to see any impacts. However, latest high
resolutions models are starting to back off the potential with
most models now seeing chances below 20%. Given this, have removed
the Prob-30 from the KGUY TAF grouping for this package.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold at all terminals for this
package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                75  98  72  93 /  10  30  40  20
Beaver OK                  71  93  67  90 /  20  20  60  30
Boise City OK              66  88  64  89 /  20  30  60  30
Borger TX                  76 101  73  97 /  10  30  50  20
Boys Ranch TX              73  97  71  95 /  10  20  40  20
Canyon TX                  73  96  71  92 /  10  20  30  10
Clarendon TX               75  97  73  93 /  10  20  30  20
Dalhart TX                 67  93  67  93 /  10  20  50  20
Guymon OK                  69  91  66  91 /  20  20  60  20
Hereford TX                73  98  71  95 /  10  20  30  10
Lipscomb TX                74  97  70  92 /  20  20  50  30
Pampa TX                   74  98  71  92 /  10  30  40  20
Shamrock TX                77 100  73  95 /  10  20  30  20
Wellington TX              78 101  75  96 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-010-015-020-
     317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11