852
FXUS64 KAMA 301729
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

High pressure will gradually strengthen and slowly shift east this
week. For today, most of the moisture will be pushed off to the
north and be limited to the OK Panhandle. However, there is a
little impulse wave late this morning to early afternoon that
could trigger off and isolated storm or two in the central to
eastern Panhandle. As the high strengthens and centers over
central OK tomorrow, south to southwest flow will prevail, as well
as lower dewpoints. This will make it difficult to achieve
convection with daytime heating on Monday. Overall, today`s highs
will be in the lower to mid 90s, with temperatures warming into
the upper 90s to lower 100s on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Tuesday will be a pretty warm day, and we may even need some heat
products. High pressure will be a bit further east and an upper
level trough will be approaching from the Four Corners. Strong
heating with ample forcing from the upper disturbance will help
spark off mid to late afternoon showers and storms. Should storms
manage to kick off earlier then some areas may not achieve the
lower 100s potential that exists from full daytime heating. Still,
a pretty hot day across the board for the Panhandles.

Upper trough will begin to suppress the ridge off to the east and
promote more of a west southwest to nearly zonal flow to the
Panhandles. Return monsoonal moisture will still be available to
most of the Panhandles and that will bring another chance of
showers and storms on Wednesday. Temperatures in the northwest
will be a bit more tame as cooler air will be in place on the
back side of the upper trough and we`ll likely be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

Thursday high pressure will begin to rebuild over the west and we
do expect some hot temperatures to return to the Panhandles. We
do have another upper trough approaching and if that speeds up
that could change the temperatures to be a bit cooler. But right
now hot temperatures with evening to overnight storms possible in
connection with that next upper trough. Given the setup of the
upper trough, it looks like it will deepen and continue a somewhat
northwest flow regime for Friday, and we could be dealing with on
and of storms from Thursday night through Friday night, and even
into Saturday. NBM highs on Friday and Saturday support this with
higher in the mid to upper 80s.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Low clouds with MVFR to IFR ceilings will remain for a few more
hours at KGUY. All sites should remain VFR through the remainder
of the TAF cycle once ceilings clear at KGUY. Winds will mainly be
out of the east at the start of this TAF issuance but will become
southerly to southwesterly towards the end of this cycle. Some
gusts will be possible in the last few hours, but have not
mentioned any gusts of 25 to 30 kts yet at this time.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72  97  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  71  99  76 101 /  10   0   0  10
Boise City OK              68  96  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                  75 103  78 106 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              73  99  75 102 /   0   0   0  10
Canyon TX                  71  96  73  99 /   0   0   0  10
Clarendon TX               72  97  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 68  98  70 100 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  70  98  74  99 /  10   0  10  10
Hereford TX                71  98  73 101 /   0   0   0  10
Lipscomb TX                73  98  77 102 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   72  97  75 101 /   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                73 100  75 103 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              75 100  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...05