437
FXUS64 KAMA 021739
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1239 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Mid level clouds continue to move across the central and western
Panhandles this morning. These clouds are remaining in tact due to
a subtle mid level low pressure system moving over the region this
morning. Previous model guidance did not indicate this cloud deck
moving across so have increased cloud coverage through the day.
These clouds could play an impact on high temperatures for today
depending upon how long they remain over the area. The cold front
is currently through the western half of the OK Panhandle and the
far northwestern TX Panhandle. This is a bit earlier than expected
so have blended in some of the new hi-res guidance that has a
better grasp on the location of the front. Will be keeping a close
eye on where the front ends up stalling this afternoon as this
will be the focal area for the stronger storms today and any
potential training storms.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A cold front was near the Arkansas River Valley early this morning.
This front is expected to slip south across the Oklahoma Panhandle
and northern Texas Panhandle late this morning into the afternoon.
This front is expected to the focus for shower and thunderstorm
development.  Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible
outside of the frontal zone as a southwest flow aloft continues to
pump subtropical moisture over the Panhandles. There is a batch of
showers pushing northeast from southern New Mexico early this
morning.  Would not surprised to see a shower or thunderstorm
somewhere in our area from now through this evening.  The best
chance of severe thunderstorms looks to be in association with the
frontal boundary as it will be closer to the better instability and
shear.  However, an isolated severe wind gust will be possible just
about anywhere, especially given the hot temperatures today that
will help to produce inverted "V" soundings.  Will keep the heat
advisory going for Palo Duro Canyon and the far southeast Texas
Panhandle for today. However, we may have a tough time reaching
criteria if we keep debris clouds around.

The front is expected to remain in our area for Wednesday and it
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development once again.
Highs are not expected to quite as warm on Wednesday given the
slightly cooler air behind the front and the added cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

A bit of uncertainty still revolves around the Fourth of July
holiday as many models see another upper-level trough push another
frontal boundary across the Panhandles that day. The timing of
this front as well as were it stalls could result in heavy changes
to both the possible activity and temperatures for the holiday. At
this time, most model are settling for a late decent of the
frontal boundary which will allow for temperatures to reach into
the 90s and triple digits down in the southern portions of the
Panhandles. This also will work to our benefit as well, as it will
also delay storm development to later that night with most models
not seeing decent chances (40 to 50%) for showers till after
midnight. However, should the front arrive sooner than expected
activity may be closer to the late evening to night hours.
Secondary to this will also be the final placement of the front
with latest trends seeing it settle just to our south around the
Lubbock area. Unfortunately if this placement does come to pass,
than our chances of showers will diminish for both Friday and
Saturday afternoon with best odds now around 20 to 25%. Chances do
look spread across the Panhandles Sunday and Monday as most model
are in agreement for a secondary trough and front to follow.
Expect this trough to exit Monday night with chances shifting more
eastward through out the day. As for next Tuesday and the mid-
week, there is still a bit of uncertainty, but current model runs
do favor northwesterly flow that could open us up to active
weather each afternoon. Otherwise, look for temperatures to fall
briefly behind each passing front with temperatures dropping into
the 80s Friday then rising back into the 90s by Sunday only to
drop again Monday.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions continue to prevail this afternoon into this
evening. Winds are out of the southwest around 15-20kts gusting to
30kts this afternoon. The main concerns will be whether showers
and storms affect TAF locations. Model guidance has delayed the
onset of storms this afternoon and evening and they may hold off
until closer to 23-00Z, especially for Dalhart and Guymon. Current
thinking remains that storms should develop and potentially affect
these sites from 00z-07z. Have kept mention of VCSH in the TAF
during this time and adjustments may need to be made. KAMA is a
little less certain but could see some showers/storms perhaps
closer to midnight, but left out mention in the TAFs for now.

Culin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                72  92  71  97 /  60  30  20  10
Beaver OK                  67  86  67  91 /  70  40  20   0
Boise City OK              63  85  60  87 /  50  40  10   0
Borger TX                  73  94  72 100 /  60  30  20   0
Boys Ranch TX              70  91  69  98 /  60  30  20   0
Canyon TX                  71  91  69  97 /  50  30  20  10
Clarendon TX               73  96  74  98 /  40  20  20  10
Dalhart TX                 66  89  62  92 /  50  30  20   0
Guymon OK                  66  87  64  89 /  60  30  20   0
Hereford TX                71  93  70  98 /  50  30  20  10
Lipscomb TX                70  87  71  96 /  70  30  20  10
Pampa TX                   71  91  70  96 /  60  30  20  10
Shamrock TX                73  99  75 101 /  30  20  10  10
Wellington TX              75 101  77 103 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...28