Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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105 FXUS64 KAMA 280916 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 416 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 High pressure over most of the area continues through the short term period. As the center of the upper ridge slowly transitions east, further opportunities for showers and thunderstorms will be had. All the while, temperatures will stay above average. Dynamics in the mid levels and at the surface will dictate who will be impacted thunderstorms and how hot afternoon highs will be for both days. Friday, temperatures and heat index values may reach 105 degrees in the eastern Panhandles and Palo Duro Canyon once again. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued in those areas for the afternoon and early evening hours. Surface temperatures themselves may not quite reach 105; however, higher low to mid 60`s dewpoints in those areas should allow heat index values to meet or exceed 105 degrees. The only other potential hindrance would be cloud coverage in those zones this afternoon. Based off short term guidance, it appears FEW to SCT cloud decks are possible but it should not be enough to hinder daytime highs from approaching the mid 100`s. Other places in the CWA can anticipate highs in the upper 90`s to low 100`s. Thunderstorm chances tonight are restricted mostly for the northern zones. Confidence in afternoon and evening convection has decreased due to some persistent mid level CIN and later timing of our shortwave trough moving across the High Plains. Most CAMs do not favor convection even after the trough moves through, but model ensembles and deterministic guidance suggest storms will eventually form ahead of the trough. Once that does occur, isolated showers and general thunderstorms can be expected late this evening. This activity should subside shortly after midnight. Saturday, a cold front will extend down into our our CWA by the afternoon hours. As the front moves south, this will allow for slightly cooler daytime highs and thunderstorm chances across most of the combined Panhandles. The overall environment will also support a few storms to become strong to severe. High instability, steep lapse rates, and modest bulk shear should allow storms to pose a damaging wind threat. 500mb temperatures are still very warm, which dissuades large hail but it cannot be completely ruled out. The equilibrium level also extends high in the atmosphere, between the 200-150 mb. This purposes the prospect of flash flooding, especially in areas that are still recovering from previous floods. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 As the axis of the 500mb ridge moves east, monsoonal flow should reactivate over the area in the mid to late periods of the extended. High temperatures will fluctuate on a daily basis due to these ventures, and on days without frontal passages and active precipitation, the low to mid triple digits will return. Sunday, post frontal highs will range in the upper 80`s and 90`s with help from lingering showers in the morning hours. Afterwards, quite weather will resume and continue into Monday; though Monday`s highs should re-enter the 90`s and 100`s due to the lack of clouds and precipitation. Tuesday onward, mid to long range guidance show multiple waves of precipitation for the rest of the extended. Considering how this will influence mesoscale features on a day to day basis, NBM values we accepted to capture the best outlook for our current forecast. However, exact deterministic values will likely change over time as we approach the coming days. Rangel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 TAFs are VFR for the 06Z period. A small chance for thunderstorms exist near the GUY terminal tomorrow evening; however, confidence is not high enough for impacts to include mentions of thunder in the TAFs. Low level winds will be on the breezy side tonight, with sustained winds for the morning hours ranging between 10-15 kts. Later on today, winds will increase at AMA were sustains should range between 20-25 kts, gusting to 35 kts at times. Strong winds will then expire by the evening hours. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 100 73 97 71 / 10 20 20 50 Beaver OK 102 70 90 66 / 10 30 20 60 Boise City OK 97 65 86 63 / 10 20 30 60 Borger TX 105 75 100 72 / 10 30 20 60 Boys Ranch TX 102 72 95 69 / 10 20 20 60 Canyon TX 100 72 95 70 / 10 10 20 50 Clarendon TX 101 76 98 72 / 10 10 20 40 Dalhart TX 100 67 90 65 / 0 10 20 60 Guymon OK 101 68 88 65 / 0 30 20 60 Hereford TX 102 72 97 71 / 0 10 20 50 Lipscomb TX 104 72 96 69 / 10 30 20 60 Pampa TX 102 73 97 70 / 10 20 20 50 Shamrock TX 104 77 100 72 / 10 10 20 40 Wellington TX 104 78 101 75 / 10 10 10 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-010-015-020-317. OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55