375
FXUS64 KAMA 050543
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Upper level troughing continues across the region in the short
term period. A couple of short wave perturbations are expected to
traverse across the High Plains and allow showers and
thunderstorms to form tonight and tomorrow.

Today, near and below average highs are forecast for many places
across the combined Panhandles thanks to the quicker progression
of the cold front today. Breezy, northerly winds should remain in
place through the rest of the day. A slight chance for isolated
thunderstorms are possible in Collingsworth County this evening if
the front hangs back in that area, otherwise convection behind the
boundary should not commence until the overnight period.

Midnight onward, a new band of showers and thunderstorms should
generate across the combined Panhandles, generally favoring the
central and northern Texas Panhandle. Storms should be scattered
and elevated in nature. There is a very small chance that a few of
them could be strong to severe, given the favorable shear and
lapse rates aloft. However, effective CAPE is expected to be on
the lower end and 500 mb temperatures close to -8 degrees Celsius
will also disallow for large hail production. If storms can
overcome some lingering CIN and develop robust updrafts, then
perhaps severe hail and damaging winds could occur.

By Friday morning, showers may still be active in the Texas
Panhandle. They should exit the region to the east by the
afternoon. Later in the evening, an additional wave of
thunderstorms may move in from New Mexico. Their progression in
the area should be limited to the western Panhandles until
Saturday morning when they finally advance across the rest of the
CWA. Due to the prolonged cloud coverage and multiple bands of
showers, day time highs should only be in the 70`s and 80`s
tomorrow.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Starting the coming weekend into early next week, our rain chances
continue. Latest 04/12Z model and numerical guidance shows a H500
high build across the Sierra Nevada range with H500 NNW flow into
the Panhandles. This will result in daily diurnal convection
moving SSE from the CO/NM high terrain into portions of the
Panhandles each day. Some storms could be strong to severe with
strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain being the main threats.
Towards the end of the forecast period, the aforementioned H500
high pressure will shift towards the northern Rockies/Black
Hills. With resultant anemic easterly and northeasterly H500 flow
into the Panhandles, the axis of better moisture transport and
overall lift should stay north of the Panhandles, bringing dry
conditions back to the Panhandles. Temperatures will be slightly
below average starting this weekend into early next week before
moderating to near average by the end of the forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place at all TAF sites this
morning, but expect this to change over the next few hours. MVFR
ceilings should move into KAMA and KDHT by 08Z. The question also
becomes do overnight showers and storms affect TAF sites and which
ones. At this time, the current model guidance suggests that KGUY
and KDHT have the better potential to see showers and storms by
around 09-15Z and have included VCSH in the forecast for now. This
will need to be monitored as the night goes on, but it is possible
KAMA will be on the fringe of activity. Winds will be out of the
northeast overnight, switching out of the east by morning and then
out of the southeast through the day. Speeds will be around
10-15kts.

Culin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  62  88  66 /  50  30  30  30
Beaver OK                  84  60  89  64 /  20  10  20  40
Boise City OK              79  57  87  61 /  20  30  30  20
Borger TX                  87  63  93  69 /  50  30  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              83  61  90  65 /  50  40  30  30
Canyon TX                  79  60  87  64 /  50  40  30  30
Clarendon TX               81  63  86  66 /  50  20  30  30
Dalhart TX                 80  57  89  61 /  40  40  30  20
Guymon OK                  82  58  88  63 /  50  30  30  30
Hereford TX                80  61  89  65 /  50  40  30  30
Lipscomb TX                84  61  89  67 /  40  10  20  40
Pampa TX                   82  61  87  66 /  50  20  30  40
Shamrock TX                85  63  89  67 /  50  10  20  30
Wellington TX              86  63  89  68 /  50  20  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...28