315
FXUS61 KALY 022332
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
732 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift away from the region tonight as clouds
increase ahead of an approaching warm front, with warm to hot
temperatures returning and continuing through Independence Day.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive with a weak cold
front Tuesday night into Wednesday, before another system brings
more widespread chances for rain and thunder Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
.Update...As of 7:30 PM EDT...Overall just minor updated to
previous forecast with this package other than bumping up dew
points a couple degrees to better align with current NYS
Mesonet and ASOS obs. High pressure remains located southeast of
Long Island, with plenty of high clouds spilling over the upper
ridge axis into our region. This leads to a somewhat tricky low
temperature forecast tonight as any breaks in the mid and high
clouds will lead to efficient radiative cooling conditions.
Expecting temperatures to drop off fairly quickly after sunset
but then level off later tonight with the coldest temps across
western New England closer to the surface high. Please see
previous discussion below for more details...

.Previous...High pressure overhead will slide to the southeast
as a warm front extending east from a system over the Midwest
approaches, bringing increased mid to high cloud coverage
through tonight. Beneath 850 hPa temperatures of 12-14C this
afternoon, highs are expected to be near normal in the 70s in
high terrain and upper 70s to mid 80s at lower elevations.
Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s will additionally make for a very
pleasant early July day.

Increased clouds will stymie efficient radiative cooling
tonight, yielding lows in the 50s for most and near 60 degrees
along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. A weak surface pressure
gradient will see light winds continue through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will lift across the region Wednesday. Despite the
surface low remaining fairly far to the north and west, the
tightening pressure gradient will yield breezy southerly flow.
Mid-level southwesterly flow will aid in lifting temperatures a
few degrees warmer than Tuesday, resulting in afternoon highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s in high terrain and mid to upper 80s
at lower elevations Wednesday.

The weakening cold front will approach from the northwest
Wednesday evening, tracking across the region overnight. As
showers move into the area, nocturnal stabilization of the air
mass will see coverage decrease. A few isolated thunderstorms
may still reach into the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley
through the evening. Overnight lows will remain mild, largely in
the 60s across the region.

Independence Day will feature warm to hot temperatures with
increased humidity as dewpoints reach into the mid 60s to low
70s at low elevations. Afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s
in high terrain and mid to upper 80s at lower elevations will
result in heat indices exceeding 90 degrees within the Hudson
and Mohawk Valleys, but heat advisories are not anticipated at
this point. Showers may linger into the morning as the cold
front continues to track southeastward while diurnal heating
south of the boundary may allow for enough destabilization to
yield a few additional thunderstorms through the afternoon,
especially south of Albany. Much of the shower activity should
end by the evening, however a few stray showers may persist into
the overnight period. Lows Thursday night remain mild, in the
upper 50s to upper 60s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The period starts on Fri with a cyclone tracking east across the
Midwest, with a warm front extending south/east from the cyclone
into the mid Atlantic region. There will already be a warm air mass
in place, with increasing moisture south of the front. It may get
close enough to produce isolated to widely scattered showers/T-
storms Fri afternoon/evening, mainly south of Albany. It will be
very warm with highs approaching 90F in the Hudson Valley.

The warm front lifts north across the area Fri night bringing
scattered showers/T-storms. Sat looks warm and increasingly humid in
the warm sector, but cloud cover may limit temperatures. Dewpoints
could reach the lower to mid 70s in lower elevations. The
aforementioned cyclone is expected to track across northern portions
of the Great Lakes to near the Ontario/Quebec border, with a
trailing cold front pushing east across our area Sat afternoon into
Sat evening. Given increased forcing, there will be scattered to
numerous showers/T-storms during this time. Given sufficient
instability/shear, there could be some strong to severe storms. Will
continue to monitor trends.

The "cold" front will be east of the region on Sunday, with the air
mass behind it similarly warm but somewhat less humid. Mainly dry
conditions are expected with weak high pressure building in, although
an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will continue
to be above normal on Mon. With high pressure in place, it should be
dry again outside of an isolated diurnally driven shower. Increasing
chances for showers/T-storms arrive on Tue, as an upper level trough
and associated surface fronts approach from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Flying conditions are currently VFR,
which should prevail through at least the end of the TAF period.
Some patchy fog can`t completely be ruled out at GFL for an hour
or two right around sunrise, but current thinking is that there
should be enough mid and high clouds around to prevent fog
formation. Otherwise, just SCT to BKN mid and high clouds
expected through tomorrow evening.

Winds will be light to calm tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt from
the south tomorrow morning. By around noon, southerly winds
increase to around 10 kt with some gusts to 20 kt (locally up to
25 kt at ALB) through 00z Thursday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Main/Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Main