314
FXUS61 KALY 120638
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
238 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary lifting northward as a warm front
and an upper level disturbance will bring some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New
England today with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds. The warm
and humid air mass will continue through the weekend with a slow
moving cold front from the west bringing additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.  The heat and humidity
increases Tuesday through the mid week with above normal
temperatures, as heat indices may reaches dangerous levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into
  tonight with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms increase
  Sunday afternoon through Monday ahead of a cold front with
  heavy rainfall and gusty winds ahead of a cold front. Isolated
  flash flooding is possible.


Discussion:

As of 238 am EDT...

A frontal boundary over upstate NY and New England near the
I-90 corridor will slowly lift back northward today as a a warm
front. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead
of this boundary will move across eastern NY and western New
England prior 12Z. SPC RAP mesoanalysis has SBCAPEs around 1000
J/kg early this morning over the forecast area with PWATs in the
1.25-1.5" range. Mid level lapse rates are weak and 0-6 km bulk
shear is less than 20 KT.

Stratus and patchy fog will gradually burn off after daybreak,
as the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
diminish. A mid level disturbance and a sfc trough under the mid
level ridge will focus another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the early to mid afternoon. The thunderstorms
are not expected to be severe with lack of robust organization
with 0-6 km bulk shear on the latest 00Z HREFSs 15 KT or less.
However, mean SBCAPEs will be 1000-1500 J/kg with above normal
PWATs (1.25-2.00"). The 3-km HRRR, NAMNest and ARW-WRF all
indicated scattered coverage and heavy rainfall will be the main
focus, though with somewhat of an inverted-V signature on the
soundings and with pcpn loading, one can not completely rule out
an isolated severe, so we included the gusty winds and heavy
rain wording in the afternoon into the early evening. Sfc
dewpoints will be in the 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices just
fall below 95F in the Hudson and Mohawk River Valleys. No heat
advisories today. Max temps will be mainly in the mid-upper 80s
in the valleys and upper 70s to lower/spotty mid 80s over the
hills and mtns.

A muggy night is expected tonight with the showers and
thunderstorms decreasing and ending with the loss of the diurnal
heating. The mid level ridge axis will be over the region. There
is a signal in the CAM`s/short range guidance and ensembles that
the offshore sfc high near Nova Scotia may actually force the
warm front westward across the region Sunday morning like a back
door front. Lows will be mainly in the 60s.

Some changes for Sunday include slightly lower dewpoints with
the frontal boundary potentially west of most of the region with
the sfc high near Nova Scotia in control to start the day. Lower
dewpoints actually hint at heat indices or "feels-like" temps
lower in the lower 90s in the valleys with perhaps a few pixels
near 95F. Dewpoints will still be in the 60s to around 70F. The
warm front lifts back northward during the afternoon, as cold
front and a prefrontal sfc trough approaches from the west. Low
and mid level heights gradually fall. A line of showers/t-storms
may reach the western Dacks/western Mohawk Valley and northern
Catskills late in the pm. Increasing deep shear to 20-25 KT with
moderate instability in the 1000-2000 J/kg will allow for some
potential for damaging wind gusts in the late pm/early evening
in these areas. SPC continues a "Marginal Risk" or level 1 of 5.
Max temps will still run slightly above normal with upper 70s
to mid/upper 80s over the forecast area.

The heavy rain threat also increases for locations west of the
Hudson River Valley in the late pm into the early night time
period as the flow becomes parallel. Soundings look "tall and
skinny" with PWATs 1.5-2.0", as the latest NAEFS has PWAT
anomalies +1 to +3 STDEVS above normal. Antecedent soil
conditions are not wet with high FFG values, but rainfall rates
1-2" with possible training can not rule out, as an isolated
flash flood threat exists into the night time period. Another
sticky night is expected with lows in the 60s to about 70F.

By Monday, the cold front should be near or over most of eastern
NY and western New England with additional showers and some
thunderstorms. The best chance of any severe t-storm may be
close to the I-84 corridor where some heating may occur. The mid
and upper level trough axis will be upstream over the
central/eastern Great Lakes Region. A drying trend should kick
in late in the day from the Capital Region north and west.
Clouds and pcpn should hold temps down on Monday...closer to
normal or slightly below, as mid 70s to around 80F will be
common over the mtns, and upper 70s to mid 80s in the lower
elevations. Albany`s normal high is 84F and we should be close
to that. A few lingering showers or isolated thunderstorms early
Mon night for the mid Hudson Valley, Berkshires and NW CT, but
then some minor relief with dew points falling off into the mid
50s to mid 60s with the cold/cool advection in the wake of the
front. Lows will range from the mid 50s over the southern Dacks
to mid/upper 60s in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Heat Indices or "Feels-Like" temps may reach the mid 90s to
  100F in the major valley areas Tue-Thu.

Discussion:

The extended actually opens with a dry day or two. High pressure
builds in from the Ohio Valley and PA with weak ridging aloft
initially. H850 temps will be slightly above normal. Some
downsloping off the higher terrain will allow max temps to reach
the upper 80s to lower 90s in the Hudson River Valley. With
dewpoints in the 60s some heat indices or "feels like" temps may
get into the mid and upper 90s. Widespread 80s to lower 90s are
expected for max temps over the region. The mid and upper level
ridge strengthens Tue night into Wed, as the Bermuda High takes
control. Some terrain differential heating or "pop-up"
thunderstorms may occur south and west of the Capital Region on
Wednesday. After lows in the 60s, max temps will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s in the valleys again with dewpoints in the mid
60s to lower 70s. Dangerous heat indices of 95-100F will be
possible, and Heat Advisories may be needed. This does not like
the extreme heat that kicked off astronomical summer in June,
but it will still be hot and humid.

As we look ahead to Thu and Fri...Another hot and humid day is
expected Thu, with a muggy morning to kick off the day with lows
in the 60s and to lower 70s. Max temps will be similar to Wed
on Thu, but diurnally-timed scattered showers and thunderstorms
that may be focused by a sfc trough may slightly cool things
down. Nonetheless, dangerous heat (heat indices in the mid 90s
to lower 100s) is expected in the valleys again and possibly
the southern Taconics and NW CT before any scattered convection
based on the NBM guidance. A cold front and a wave of low
pressure moving along it may bring widespread showers and some
strong thunderstorms to close the week, as temps trend closer to
normal heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...All terminals currently VFR as of 1:15 AM EDT.
However, low stratus will continue to expand north and westwards
through the rest of tonight, reaching POU/PSF by around 7-8z and ALB
by around 9z. Mainly MVFR fuel alternate cigs expected with this low
stratus, except at PSF where a few hours of borderline IFR cigs are
possible around sunrise. Not expecting the low stratus to reach GFL,
but with more clearing here patchy fog and IFR or lower vsbys
are possible, so this was handled with a tempo group. Will also
mention that there is a chance for a few showers around at ALB
around or shortly after sunrise, and have included this in a
tempo group, but confidence is not all that high.

Low stratus and any fog should dissipate by mid to late morning,
with a return to mainly VFR conditions after that. There will be
additional scattered showers and thunderstorms around this
afternoon. Have included prob30 groups at ALB/GFL where confidence
is highest and just included VCSH at POU/PSF where confidence in a
shower/storm occurring is lower. MVFR to IFR vsbys briefly
possible in any showers/storms, but VFR otherwise through the
afternoon. Showers/storms dissipate after sunset with continued
VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be
light and variable through the rest of the night, increasing to
around 10 kt from the S/SE by this afternoon with some gusts to
15-20kt. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt still from the SE after
sunset, although ALB may still see some gusts to around 15 kt
through 06z Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Main