Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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063 FXUS61 KALY 021735 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 135 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring warm and dry weather through Wednesday with comfortable humidity levels. A weak cold front will bring an increase in humidity along with some showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday night into Independence Day. Another low pressure system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday with very warm and humid conditions continuing. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure overhead will slide to the southeast as a warm front extending east from a system over the Midwest approaches, bringing increased mid to high cloud coverage through tonight. Beneath 850 hPa temperatures of 12-14C this afternoon, highs are expected to be near normal in the 70s in high terrain and upper 70s to mid 80s at lower elevations. Dewpoints in the 40s and 50s will additionally make for a very pleasant early July day. Increased clouds will stymie efficient radiative cooling tonight, yielding lows in the 50s for most and near 60 degrees along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. A weak surface pressure gradient will see light winds continue through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The warm front will lift northward across the area on Wednesday, putting our region in the warm sector of a low pressure system centered over Hudson Bay. High pressure will remain positioned along the New England coast with upper- level ridging just downstream. Subsidence from these features and a lack of forcing will keep our region dry through the day with humidity levels also remaining in the comfortable range (dewpoints in the 50s to around 60). 850 hPa temperatures will be a couple of degrees higher which should allow temperatures to rise a few degrees more compared to Tuesday. A southerly breeze will pick up especially during the afternoon hours. The system`s cold front will begin to enter western New York by Wednesday evening with some showers and thunderstorms along it. Overall forcing is weak and well to our north and west and these showers will encounter a more stable air mass as they continue to track eastward through the night. This should cause the showers to gradually weaken and decrease in coverage as they approach our region. Still, a few showers are expected after midnight especially for areas north and west of Albany. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out across the Adirondacks or Mohawk Valley. It will be a milder night with lows mainly in the 60s. The cold front, albeit weak, will continue to push east to southeastward across the region on Thursday, Independence Day. A shower or two may linger into the morning hours. Otherwise, forcing will remain weak with the best instability building across areas south of I-90. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop across these areas prior to the passage of the front during the afternoon hours, lingering into the evening and overnight hours. Otherwise, warm and more humid conditions are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s in the valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s across the higher elevations. Heat index values (feels-like temperatures) look to peak in the upper 80s to around 90 in the valley areas, shy of heat advisory criteria of 95 degrees. Lows Thursday night fall back to the upper 50s to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An old frontal boundary will be lifting northward on Friday as a warm front, allowing the entire region to enter a warm sector. With rising heights over the region, temps aloft will be warming slightly as well, with 850 hpa temps somewhere in the +16 to +18 C range. This should allow for afternoon temps to reach well into the 80s for valley areas, with a few spots reaching around 90 in the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley. Dewpoints will also be muggy in the 60s. With the warm and humid air mass in place, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. With an upper level shortwave lifting from the Great Lakes towards southern Canada, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. It will continue to be very warm and muggy with our area in a broad southerly flow ahead of the approaching system and a surface boundary off to the west. Highs should be well into the 80s to near 90 once again. Best chance for showers and t- storms looks to be during the afternoon and early evening hours, with slightly higher coverage of storms for areas north and west of the Capital Region, closer to the better forcing aloft. Too early to anticipate the severe risk, but considering the nearby shortwave and warm/muggy air mass, it would make sense that some storms could become strong on Saturday. There should be less showers and t-storms around on Sunday, as the surface front should have crossed the region, although with a west- southwest flow still in place aloft and fairly high heights/warm temps aloft still around, daytime temps will once again be fairly warm on Sunday, with highs still in the mid to upper 80s. Will keep a slight chc for a shower or t-storm around, but coverage looks much lower with little large scale forcing around. Most of Monday looks dry as well, although it will depend on the timing of the next system from the west, with perhaps a threat for a shower or t-storm by late in the day or at night. A better chance for more widespread coverage may arrive by Tuesday, but this is still fairly far out. Temps continue to look above normal and warm/muggy with fairly high heights and warm temps aloft. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...Persistent high pressure will see continued VFR conditions at all terminals throughout the TAF period. Few-sct diurnal cu at 4-6 kft will increase in coverage through the afternoon, particularly in areas of higher terrain. A system tracking well to the west of the region will see a warm front approach, bringing increased high clouds at 20-25 kft through the afternoon and overnight. Diurnal cu at 4-6 kft returns after 12-15Z Wed while mid to upper levels clouds at 15-20 kft continue. Light winds at 5 kt or less continue across the region through this evening, with calm to light and variable flow expected overnight. Winds increase out of the south through Wednesday morning to 8-12 kt, with gusts of 15-20 kt possible toward the end of the period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Picard SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Picard