314
FXUS61 KALY 291617
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1217 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring showers
today, along with breezy conditions. Showers and thunderstorms
with locally heavy downpours are expected tonight. A cold front
will bring additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
Sunday, some of which could be strong to severe, mainly south
and east of Albany. Fair weather and less humid conditions
return for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1040 AM EDT, area of light to moderate rain
just entering southwestern Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley. The rest of ALY forecast area just has some spotty
showers. Skies are mostly cloudy. It is breezy with winds
generally from a southeasterly direction.

Area of rain to the west is moving in an east northeast
direction and should affect mainly northern areas over the next
few hours, with more scattered showers to the south. Instability
remains weak to nil so not expecting any thunder until closer
to sunset as storms that develop over western NY and PA may
reach our forecast area.

PREVIOUS [0400 AM]...As of 4 AM EDT, increasing mid level warm
advection and a lead shortwave have allowed an area of mainly
light rain to expand across much of western/central NY, and is
currently reaching the SW Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley with
some sprinkles as far east as the Capital/Saratoga region. The
rain should continue expanding east through daybreak, with most
areas along and north of I-90/NW of I-88 experiencing light to
moderate rain showers by daybreak, with some showers extending
as far south as the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

These showers should continue through around mid morning, before
possibly lifting back northward during the midday hours. Areas
across the southern Adirondacks extending into the Lake George
region and southern VT should have occasional showers through
most of the day. Showers will be more intermittent closer to and
south of I-90/SE of I-88, especially this afternoon.

Some weak elevated instability approaching from the west may
allow for a few embedded thunderstorms late this afternoon
across the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, along with
heavier downpours.

It will remain breezy at times today, especially within
north/south oriented valleys and the Capital Region, with
south/southeast winds occasionally gusting as high as 30-40 mph.
High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 70s in valley areas
later this afternoon, except 75-80 across the mid Hudson Valley.
Portions of the southern Adirondacks and Lake George region may
only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s due to more frequent
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front approaches from the southwest tonight, with
additional shortwave energy crossing the region. Expect several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially for areas north
of I-90 this evening. High PWAT`s of ~2", and warm cloud depths
may lead to locally heavy downpours at times. The
showers/thunderstorms may shift south of I-90 after midnight
with a general decrease in areal coverage. It will be warm and
humid tonight, with temperatures holding in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Warm front lifts north/east of the region Sunday morning, with
pre-frontal trough crossing the region from NW to SE during the
late morning/early afternoon hours, followed by main cold front
during the afternoon. There could be a band of
showers/thunderstorms developing and/or crossing the region
during the mid to late morning hours associated with the
prefrontal trough, especially for areas north and west of the
Capital Region. Heavy downpours and gusty winds could accompany
some of these storms, as instability builds with HREF mean SB
CAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg amid 0-6 km shear of 40-50 KT.
Isolated severe thunderstorms could occur with this initial
band. Then, this pre-frontal trough and associated
showers/thunderstorms should shift south/east of the Capital
Region during the afternoon. Greater instability (SB CAPES
1500-2000 J/kg) and 0-6 km shear of 40-50 KT may allow storms to
become somewhat more organized, particularly across the mid
Hudson Valley, NW CT, Berkshire and SE VT, where SPC has placed
a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The remainder of the
region is under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threat, however
can not rule a tornado or two across the Slight Risk area given
the strong shear, potentially high instability and low LCL`s
ahead of the prefrontal trough.

Additional scattered showers/thunderstorms may redevelop later
in the afternoon with the main cold front. However, overall
instability may be reduced from earlier convection. High temps
should reach the 80s for most valley areas and 70s across higher
terrain areas. Heat indices could approach the mid 90s across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley, and if confidence for this to
occur, heat advisories may be issued for this area.

Lingering showers/thunderstorms across southern areas Sunday
evening should taper off, however isolated/scattered showers may
redevelop across the southern Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley region
as upper level trough approaches. Some of these showers could
continue into Monday morning, especially for the upper Hudson
Valley into southern VT and the Berkshires. Otherwise clearing
and cooler for Monday with highs mainly in the 70s.

Mainly clear and cool for Monday night, with low temperatures in
the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be centered over the region on
Tuesday resulting in dry weather, plenty of sunshine,
seasonable temperatures and low humidity. This high will push
eastward on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward across the
area. The best forcing will remain to our north and west so
Wednesday should also remain mostly dry. Highs will rise well
into the 80s across the valleys and the upper 70s to lower 80s
in the higher elevations.

A cold front associated with an area of low pressure tracking
well northward into Quebec will slowly cross the region
Wednesday night into Thursday, Independence Day. Showers and a
few thunderstorms will likely accompany the front during this
time. There remains a bit of uncertainty with the timing of the
front and if enough instability and shear will be present for
stronger storms. Precipitable water values may increase to over
1.50 inches, so some heavy downpours are possible. Will monitor
trends over the coming days. Otherwise, it looks to be a very
warm and humid day on Thursday with highs reaching the mid to
upper 80s across many valley areas with some lower 90s across
the mid-Hudson Valley (upper 70s to lower 80s in the higher
elevations).

The cold front looks to stall just south of our region on Friday
but could remain close enough to keep the chance for additional
showers and thunderstorms around.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...Mainly MVFR conditions are expected this
afternoon, although there is a chance for a few pockets of VFR
conditions through the first few hours of the TAF period especially
at POU. A period of rain is expected at GFL all afternoon with MVFR
vsbys/cigs and occasional pockets of IFR this evening. Precipitation
will be more showery at ALB/PSF and may not move in until mid to
late afternoon, with showers holding off until this evening at POU.

Continued showers are expected through the first half of tonight,
especially at GFL. Cigs are expected to lower to IFR at all TAF
sites overnight tonight. The start time of IFR cigs remains somewhat
uncertain, and confidence in IFR is highest after around midnight
through sunrise tomorrow morning. Vsbys will likely be VFR to MVFR
with patchy fog/mist due to abundant low-level moisture. After
sunrise tomorrow morning, any low stratus gradually mixes out with a
return to VFR conditions by mid-morning at all TAF sites. However,
an approaching will bring chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms late tomorrow morning or early afternoon, with the
highest chances at POU/PSF. Have included prob30 groups here towards
the end of the TAF period with a VCSH at ALB to mention the
thunderstorm threat. Not expecting any showers/storms at GFL
tomorrow.

Winds will be at around 10-15 kt this afternoon from the
south/southeast with gusts to around 25 kt. Gusts diminish after
sunset this evening (except at ALB), but sustained winds remain at
around 10 kt out of the south. Tomorrow morning, winds at ALB, GFL
and possibly PSF become west/southwesterly behind the cold front at
around 10 kt with a few higher gusts possible, while winds remain
southerly at around 10 kt at POU. Winds at 2000 ft increase to
around 40 kt at ALB/GFL/POU and 45-50 kt at PSF this evening and
tonight. While ALB/GFL/POU are expected to fall just short of LLWS
criteria, due in part to strong surface winds, PSF may meet LLWS
criteria late tonight through around sunrise.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Isolated SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers will overspread the region today, with embedded
thunderstorms developing later today into tonight. High PWAT`s
of ~2", warm cloud depth and some potential training of
thunderstorms could increase the potential for heavy rainfall
and localized flooding tonight into Sunday. The greatest
potential for this looks to be across the southern Adirondacks
and western Mohawk Valley for tonight, with a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall has been outlined by WPC.

With the abundant moisture in place through Sunday, A few
instances of flash flooding are possible in any areas where
repeated heavy downpours occur.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Main
HYDROLOGY...KL