089
FXUS61 KALY 301757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
157 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
today, some of which could be strong to severe, mainly south and
east of Albany. Monday will be cooler and less humid with
isolated showers possible. Fair and warmer conditions return for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 132 PM EDT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch #489 continues
until 7 pm this evening from the Capital Region on south and
eastward.

Our area remains within a very moist air mass ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary that is currently located over
the Finger Lakes and heading into central NY. Dewpoints are in
the mid 60s to lower 70s, with temps into the 80s for many spots
that haven`t seen a storm yet today. SPC Mesoanalysis shows
MLCAPE values range from around 500 J/kg across northern areas
to nearly 2000 J/kg across the lower Hudson Valley and coastal
CT. Although the 12z KALY sounding showed fairly weak lapse
rates aloft, the ample instability will come together with
abundant shear (0-6 km bulk shear values around 40-50 kts) to
allow for a risk for severe storms. While a severe storm can`t
be ruled out across the entire area, the highest risk will be
for areas south and east of the Capital Region, where SPC has
upgraded to an "enhanced risk" (level 3 of 5) for today. The
main risk will be for damaging winds, as strong unidirectional
flow will be favorable for damaging winds within bowing segments
and along strongest parts of lines and clusters.

An initial line of thunderstorms has been impacting the region.
These storms spread from the Catskills across the mid Hudson
Valley and southern Taconics and are now impacting NW CT.
Widespread wind damage has been occurring with these storms,
with numerous reports of trees and wires downed from the wind.
These storms will continue to impact Dutchess and Litchfield
Counties over the next hour or so.

Behind these storms, some cellular activity is occurring to the
north, but these cells are mainly showers and not strong at this
time. CAMs suggest an additional broken line of storms may
develop just ahead of the actual cold front this afternoon for
southern areas once again, but it will depend on how much
instability can become re-established behind this initial batch
of storms.

In addition, any thunderstorms could contain torrential
downpours today given PWAT`s 1.50-1.75" and some possibility for
training and backbuilding of cells. However, coverage of storms
and speed of the storms should help limit the threat for flash
flooding, so this is more of an isolated threat for today. Some
minor flooding may be occurring in NW CT with the current
storms, especially in urban and poor drainage areas and a Flood
Advisory is in effect for there.

High temperatures should reach the lower/mid 80s in many valley
areas today, and possibly the upper 80s across portions of the
mid Hudson Valley, where heat indices could briefly reach the
mid 90s before cooling from thunderstorms occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering showers/thunderstorms should taper off this
evening across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Additional
isolated/scattered showers may develop later tonight as upper
level trough approaches. Elsewhere, partly to mostly cloudy and
turning less humid with low temps mainly in the 50s.

Upper level trough will traverse the region Monday, and may
produce isolated showers, especially for areas east of the
Hudson River. There could be enough instability for some thunder
within the tallest convective elements. Otherwise, it will
become breezy and less humid, with max temps mainly in the 70s
in valley areas and 65-70 across higher terrain areas.

Mainly clear and quite cool Monday night, with low temps in the
upper 40s to lower/mid 50s for most areas. Some portions of the
southern Adirondacks could drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Mostly sunny and warmer for Tuesday, with partly cloudy skies
and milder temps Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday rebounding into
the lower/mid 80s for lower elevations and mid/upper 70s across
higher terrain. Lows Tuesday night in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be centered off the New England coast as
southerly return flow resumes across the region. A warm front will
lift northward across the area. The best forcing will remain to our
north and west so another dry day is expected. Highs will rise into
the lower to mid-80s across the valleys and mid to upper 70s across
the higher elevations with continued comfortable humidity levels.

A cold front associated with an area of low pressure tracking well
northward into Quebec will slowly cross the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, Independence Day. Showers and a few thunderstorms
will likely accompany the front during this time. Instability looks
rather weak so the severe weather threat looks low at this time.
Precipitable water values may increase to over 1.50 inches, so some
heavy downpours are possible. Will monitor trends over the coming
days. Otherwise, it looks to be a very warm and humid day for July
Fourth with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across many valley
areas with some lower 90s across the mid-Hudson Valley (upper 70s to
lower 80s in the higher elevations).

The front looks to lift back northward as a warm front Friday into
next weekend as another upper trough approaches from the west. This
will keep a chance for showers and thunderstorms around each day for
the rest of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z/Mon...Currently VFR Conditions at all TAF sites
except KPOU where a thunderstorm was just south of the airfield.
Additional showers are possible along a cold front that will cross
the area this afternoon. Have tempos for rain showers at KGFL,
KALB and KPSF where a thunderstorm is also possible this
afternoon pub probs are too low with only isolated storms to
include in TAF. Best chance for an additional thunderstorm will
be at KPOU. MVFR conditions are possible in any shower or
thunderstorm this afternoon.

Showers will end and clouds will briefly decrease in coverage
before patchy low clouds develop overnight along with an
isolated shower mainly near KGFL. KPSF is most favored for MVFR
cigs.

Wind will shift from southwest to west to northwesterly this
afternoon. Wind speeds will generally be 5 to 15kt with some
gusts to 25 kts. Higher gusts are possible from any
thunderstorms. Wind will become northerly at around 10 kt
overnight and continue on Monday with some gusts to 20kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Abundant moisture (PWAT`s 1.5-2 inches, especially areas
south/east of Albany) and relatively warm cloud depths will
promote efficient rainfall rates in showers and thunderstorms
today. Rainfall rates could reach or exceed one inch/hour within
thunderstorms, especially south and east of Albany this
afternoon.

Localized flooding of urban, low lying and poor drainage areas
will be possible where thunderstorms occur. Isolated flash
flooding is also possible where multiple heavy downpours occur.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL