Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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936 FXUS61 KALY 011726 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 126 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will bring some clouds and isolated showers to portions of the region this morning, followed by clearing this afternoon. High pressure will then bring fair weather tonight through Wednesday along with a warming trend. Independence Day will be very warm and humid, with a stray afternoon thunderstorm possible in a few locations. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .Update...As of 1:25 PM EDT...Earlier showers across the Hudson Valley have tapered off, with just a few isolated showers now over the high terrain of western New England under the uper trough axis. Further west, subsidence behind the trough axis has allowed for some partial clearing. Temperatures are mainly in the 60s to 70s now, and while the humidity is significantly lower than the last few days dew points were bumped up a coup,e degrees from the previous forecast. Overall though, just minor adjustments with this update to reflect current trends. See previous discussion below for more details... .Previous...As the upper level trough and reinforcing cold front pass through, some clearing is expected this afternoon, first within valley areas from north to south, then eventually across higher terrain areas. Increasing subsidence and gradual mid level warming from west to east in the wake of slow mid- level trough passage should allow for clouds to decrease in coverage through this evening. It will be breezy with fairly deep mixing to ~H750, allowing for north winds to gust up to 25-30 mph at times, especially within the Hudson River Valley. High temperatures should reach 75-80 in most valley areas by late afternoon, while remaining cooler, generally mid 60s to around 70 across higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure approaches the region tonight, allowing for winds to become light to calm amid a dry air mass with PWAT`s dropping to 0.50-0.75". This should allow temps to drop off into the 50s for most areas, with 40s across higher elevations and portions of the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley. Would not be surprised if a few upper 30s occur within the most sheltered areas of the SW Adirondacks. Fair weather with gradual warming expected for Tuesday into Wednesday, with just occasional high/mid level clouds streaming through, especially Wednesday. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday, and lower/mid 80s Wednesday for most valley locations. Tuesday night lows in the mid 50s to around 60, except around 50 across portions of the southern Adirondacks. An approaching warm front from the west may bring some showers/embedded thunderstorms late Wednesday night for portions of the southern Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley region, with some possibility reaching as far south/east of the Capital Region and Lake George/Saratoga region into southern VT. It will be warmer due to clouds and some wind, with lows generally in the upper 50s to lower/mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak cold front associated with an area of low pressure located across northern Quebec will cross the region on Thursday, Independence Day. The best forcing looks to be to our north and south. As a result, only expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise, it will turn out to be a very warm day with highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s across the valleys and upper 70s to lower 80s across the higher elevations. This front looks to stall Thursday night into early Friday just to our south before lifting back northward as a warm front Friday into Friday night. Then, an area of low pressure tracking northeastward over the Great Lakes will send a cold front through our area on Saturday. This will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast both Friday and Saturday. Very warm and humid conditions will continue both days as well with highs once again in the mid-80s to around 90 in the valleys with upper 70s to lower 80s across the higher elevations. Weak high pressure may build over the region on Sunday. While Sunday looks drier compared to Saturday, continued warm and humid conditions could result in a pop up shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18z/Tue... VFR conditions will prevail at area TAF sites through this afternoon with SCT to BKN ceilings ranging from 3500-5000 feet. Northerly winds around 10 knots will become light around or shortly after 00Z. Clearing skies and very light winds will support at least a medium chance for fog with MVFR visibility restrictions at KGFL from 09Z-12Z Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Independence Day: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL NEAR TERM...KL/Main SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Humphrey