354
FXUS61 KALY 050549
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
149 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry tonight outside of a few isolated showers but a weak
boundary lifting north tomorrow will allow scattered showers
and thunderstorms to redevelop, especially in the afternoon,
with continued warm and muggy conditions. Hot and humid
conditions are expected on Saturday with more thunderstorms
around once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 123 AM EDT...Surface boundary remains stalled over the
region early this morning. Areas south of the front are seeing a
light southerly flow, while northern areas are fairly calm.
Aloft, the flow is out of the west-southwest, with an upper
level disturbance well upstream of the area over the Midwest.
The weak surface front will stay in place overnight.

IR satellite imagery shows fairly widespread clouds in place,
mostly mid level clouds. MRMS shows some spotty showers are
ongoing, especially for the mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, and
into western New England. Through the rest of the overnight
hours, some brief showers will be possible, mainly for southern
and eastern areas. Instability is limited, so won`t go with any
thunder through daybreak.  Otherwise, it will remain fairly
cloudy, muggy and mild with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Dewpoints will stay high, so it will feel sticky and humid
through the late night hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some lingering isolated to scattered showers and storms are
possible in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT Friday morning, and
a mix of clouds and sun is expected outside of any morning
showers and storms, to help temperatures and the humidity to
rise through the day. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon with the instability and diffuse
boundary still in our region as a low level focus. Highs Friday
well in the 80s to near 90, with around 80 to lower 80s higher
terrain. The increase in low level humidity will cause heat
indices to rise to the mid 90s in the mid Hudson Valley to
perhaps the Capital Region but very brief and some uncertainty
about heat indices reaching 95 or higher for two hours or more,
so no Heat Advisories.

Weak upper impulse tracks north of our region Friday night,
supporting a little bit of an expansion of the showers and
thunderstorms over our region. Instability will be marginal and
shear will increase but still, the low level forcing will be
weak, and not enough of a severe weather or flood threat to
highlight. So, showers likely with scattered thunderstorms
Friday night, that are timed to exit around or after daybreak
Saturday. Some intervals of clouds and sun later Saturday
morning and early afternoon before additional more isolated to
scattered showers and storms develop along the leading edge of
weak low level colder and drier air. The intervals of sun and
clouds will help temperatures to get well into the 80s, with
around 80 higher terrain.

Any lingering scattered showers and storms exit western New
England Saturday evening and cloud cover should decrease through
the night. Sunday is expected to be dry and partly to mostly
sunny with the weak cold front just to the south. Highs well
into the 780s to near 90 with upper 70s to lower 80s higher
terrain, and slightly less humid.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather will continue Monday with highs in the mid 80s to
around 90 and around 80 to lower 80s higher terrain. The weak
low level boundary to our south will begin to return north
Tuesday as upper energy in the Great Lakes approaches.
Increasing clouds and showers and thunderstorms are expected
Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s and upper 70s to
around 80 higher terrain.

The low level, nearly stationary boundary over our region will
be the focus for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday as weak upper energy tracks along the U.S./Canada
border. Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the lower to mid 80s
with 70s higher terrain.

The weak upper dynamics and shear suggest limited potential for
severe thunderstorms or a flood threat but the nearly
stationary nature of the low level boundary and prolonged
chances for showers and thunderstorms suggests at least keeping
an eye on heavy rain potential.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail at all terminals
this morning with the exception of KPSF where visibililty falls
within the MVFR category and the ceiling has been bouncing
between VFR and MVFR. These conditions are not anticipated to
persist, but are likely in association with some vicinity
showers that could be causing some nearby mist/light fog. The
KENX radar shows widely scattered, very light showers throughout
the area this morning but no real impacts have been noted at
any of the terminals outside of a mention of -RA at KALB which
will likely not make it to the next ob.

Throughout the 06z TAF period, mainly VFR conditions are
anticipated across the terminals until later this afternoon when
a weak boundary looks to bring some scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Based on the latest guidance, KPOU/KPSF/KALB look
to be the terminals with the greatest probability to be impacted
so PROB30 groups were included here between 18-01z. At least
MVFR conditions are likely to accompany these storms, with IFR
conditions also possible. However, confidence is not high enough
at this lead time to include IFR conditions within the TAFs.
Will make adjustments with future iterations where necessary.
Upon the conclusion of convective activity, VFR conditions
should return and prevail for the remainder of the 06z TAF
period.

Winds throughout the 06z cycle will begin calm to light and
variable before increasing to sustained speeds of 3-6 kt out of
the south to southwest.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Gant