718
FXUS61 KALY 051041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
641 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions in store today with seasonal temperatures. Hot
temperatures and humid conditions return for Sunday into Monday. An
active weather pattern returns for the beginning of next week into
midweek with daily chances for afternoon rain showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update:
As of 6:00 AM...Patchy fog continues to diminish this morning as
daylight increases. Use extra caution when traveling this
morning as visibility can be quickly reduced to less than 5
miles. Minor update to current hourly temperatures to slow down
the progressive increase in temperature rise by two hours as low
temperatures this morning are in the 40s and 50s across the
eastern Catskills and southern Adirondacks. Otherwise the rest
of the forecast is doing well and on track for today.

Discussion:
Another dry and pleasant summer day is in store for eastern New
York and western New England as surface high pressure is
overhead. High temperatures today range in the upper 70s and
80s. For tonight, patchy fog could develop for river valley
locations but this will depend on if winds become calm once
again tonight. At this forecast period, winds should be between
5 to 10 mph overnight so confidence is low (less than 20
percent) on fog development tonight. A more humid airmass and
increasing clouds arrive tonight ahead of an approaching warm
front. This contributes to low temperatures ranging in the 60s
for tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Hot temperatures and humid conditions return Sunday.

Discussion:

With a more humid airmass overhead and dew point temperatures
ranging in the 60s and low 70s, Sunday is going to feel muggy
outside. Dry conditions continue Sunday under surface high pressure.
Hot temperatures are in store with highs ranging in the valley
locations in the low 90s and elsewhere in the upper 80s.
Probabilities for high temperatures on Sunday greater than 90
degrees is greater than 95 percent for the Greater Capital District
and Upper Hudson Valley. With this information and high forecast
confidence, heat advisories have been issued for the Greater Capital
District and Upper Hudson Valley on Sunday afternoon as feels-like
temperatures range between 95 to 99 degrees. Remember to take
frequent breaks when spending time outdoors, stay hydrated, and have
multiple ways of staying cool.

Monday will start out dry as our surface high pressure system heads
east with morning low temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Little to no relief from the humid conditions with another day of
hot temperatures in store. High temperatures range in the upper 80s
to low 90s, with feels-like temperatures ranging in the 90s to low
100s. Latest National Blend of Models 4.3 data shows probabilities
for high temperatures on Monday greater than 90 degrees is between
80 and 90 percent for valley locations. With this information, heat
headlines could continue for the Monday afternoon hours.

Monday afternoon and evening has between 30 and 50 percent
chance for thunderstorms to develop ahead of an approaching
cold front. Latest forecast model guidances is in good agreement for
thunderstorms to develop, but there is some uncertainty of
strength of storms and who exactly sees a thunderstorm. At this
forecast time, locations north of the Mohawk Valley and west of
the Lake George-Saratoga region have the potential for a few
storms to become strong to severe. This has been outlined in
SPC`s latest Day 3 severe weather outlook with a level 1 of 5
risk of severe weather. The primary concern with thunderstorms
on Monday is going to be strong winds, lightning, and heavy
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active weather pattern continues into Tuesday with chances (30-
50%) for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms as an upper level
shortwave could move through eastern New York and western New
England contributing to these unsettled weather conditions. There is
still a bit of uncertainty on the exact timing and track of the
shortwave, so continue to monitor the latest forecasts and the
primary concern with any developed thunderstorm Tuesday is
going to be gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning. Relief from
the hot temperatures is in store for Tuesday as high
temperatures range in the 70s and 80s. It`s still going to feel
humid out as the humid airmass is still overhead, but we have
increasing clouds during the afternoon hours.

Wednesday is looking to be a brief break in the precipitation, but
an unsettled weather pattern returns for Thursday and Friday as
latest ensemble model guidance is hinting at upper level troughing
returning to bring daily chances (40-50%) of afternoon rain showers
and thunderstorms for eastern New York and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Any lingering early patchy ground fog at
PSF will dissipate early this morning (by 12-13 UTC). Then, VFR
conditions prevail through the end of the TAF period as cirrus
clouds continue to spill into the Northeast. Winds become
southerly by 14-15 UTC reaching 5-10 KT with gusts up to 15kts
through 23-00 UTC. Southerly winds continue overnight sustained
5-8kts as a warm front pushes through tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ040-041-043-
     049-050-052-053-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Speciale