367
FXUS61 KAKQ 020144
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
944 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes tonight and becomes
centered off the coast on Tuesday, keeping below normal
temperatures and dry conditions in place. Warmer but dry
conditions prevail Wednesday, with heat and humidity returning
late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 945 PM EDT Monday...

- Key Message: Dry, pleasant with below average temperatures
  tonight/Tuesday.

Evening wx analysis continues to show ~1023 mb high pressure in
the eastern Great Lakes vicinity. Aloft, the flow is NW in the
wake of the departing upper trough. A refreshingly cool dry
airmass has spread over the local area with temperatures this
evening dropping quickly into the 60s (lower 70s at the
immediate coast and in urban localities). Dew points are in the
50s for most, which is dramatically less humid than this time
yesterday. For tonight, mainly clear skies expected with lows in
the mid-upper 50s inland and low-mid 60s closer to the coast. Light
or calm winds overnight inland, with onshore flow of 5-10mph SE
VA/NE NC at the coast.

The sfc high will become centered along the coast from southern
New England to the Delmarva Tuesday aftn, keeping an easterly
flow in place in the low levels. Mainly sunny in the morning
with SCT aftn cumulus. A little warmer but still comfortable,
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast, and in
the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew pts remain in the 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...


The sfc high will sit just off the New England and Mid Atlc
coast Tue night and Wed. Clear to partly cloudy and still
rather comfortable Tue night, with lows in the upper 50s to
mid/upper 60s. The models show good consensus for the return of
the upper ridge over the SE CONUS by Wed, as the sfc high is
slow to push farther offshore. Still enough onshore flow to
keep the significant heat away despite temperatures warming
back to about average. Highs mainly in the upper 80s inland
(lower 80s at the coast), with dew pts in the lower 60s.
Generally mostly sunny again. Dry and turning more humid Wed
night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70F. The sfc high will be
far enough offshore Thursday/Independence Day to allow for an
increasing southerly flow, with hotter temperatures and
increasing humidity (though not to the level of what occurred on
Sunday). Highs will be into the mid 90s inland with upper
80s/lower 90s at the coast. Dew pts in the upper 60s/lower 70s
will lead to heat indices in the upper 90s to ~103F (but should
be below heat advisory criteria). Some late aftn instability
develops with 20-40% chance for mainly late aftn/evening tstms
(highest PoPs NW). Partly cloudy and warm/humid Thursday night
with lows in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity return.

After a nice break from the heat/humidity, there remains strong
model consensus for another round of hot and humid weather
Friday through at least the upcoming weekend. The upper ridge
will initially be positioned from the Gulf coast to the
Carolinas, slowly shifting E off the SE coast over the weekend.
This will keep an series of upper troughs well off to our NW
through the weekend (over the upper midwest/northern Great
Lakes). Rather weak flow at the sfc with high pressure offshore
will be conducive to a general SSW low level flow, but with some
seabreeze development possible. Overall, highs look to average
in the mid-upper 90s inland, and 90-95F closer to the coast Fri-
Sat, and perhaps a few degrees lower Sun-Mon as a weak cold
front stalls or washes out in the vicinity of the area. Have
gone a little below the typical high bias shown by NBM dew pts,
but still expect them to be back in the low-mid 70s for the
period, which would yield heat indices in the 100-105F range. As
for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/sctd mainly
aftn/evening tstms (PoPs 20-40%), with the best chance in the
piedmont and perhaps with the seabreeze although with a lot of
uncertainty at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

Very quiet wx and VFR through the 00z period. SKC tonight with
N/NNE winds ~5 kt. SCT CU again redevelops Mon aftn and could
become locally BKN during peak heating. Winds Tue will be ENE
initially, shifting to the E/ESE in the later aftn/evening. Wind
speeds will be 5-10kt inland and 10-15kt near the coast in SE
VA/NE NC.

Mainly VFR conditions continue through Thu outside of some
patchy ground fog early Wed/Thu morning (most of this will not
affect main terminals). Widely scattered showers/tstms possible
in the late aftn/evening Thu-Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 915 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have expired as winds continue to
  subside.

- Benign conditions expected through mid-week before daily storm
  chances and heat return.

North/northwesterly winds have subsided to 10-15kt across the
waters late this evening as drier air works into the region
around an area of high pressure. All Small Craft Advisories have
been allowed to expire. Waves in the Bay have resided to 1-2ft
with seas diminishing to 2-3ft across the northern coastal
waters and 3-4ft to the south.

The majority of the work week will feature benign boating
conditions as high pressure gradually becomes anchored offshore,
allowing winds to transition from E-SE-S. By Thursday, the next
cold front will attempt to move toward the region from the Ohio
Valley with lee troughing over inland VA allowing the pressure
gradient along the coast to tighten modestly. The chance for
showers and storms will also increase late week into the weekend
with associated enhancements to local winds/waves/seas.

Moderate rip current risk is forecast for the southern beaches on
Tuesday with a low risk for the northern beaches. A low rip risk is
forecast for all beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2024 Preliminary Temperature data:

- Site: Avg Temp/Departure

- RIC: 78.8 (+3.8) (4th warmest)
- ORF: 79.0 (+2.3) (5th warmest)
- SBY: 74.6 (+1.9) (not top 10)
- ECG: 76.9 (+0.7) (not top 10)

Rainfall was below average, but with locally heavy rain on the
30th, no site ranked among the top 10 driest.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/SW
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...JKP/RHR
CLIMATE...