652
FXUS61 KAKQ 021828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
228 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure lingers north of the region today and becomes
centered off the coast through this evening, keeping below
normal temperatures and dry conditions in place. Warmer but
remaining dry on Wednesday, with heat and humidity returning
late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 925 AM EDT Monday...

- Key Message: Dry, pleasant with below average temperatures
  through tonight.

Latest wx analysis continues to show ~1026 mb high pressure
centered over the interior northeast from W NY into the central
Appalachians this morning. Aloft, the flow is NW in the wake of
the departing upper trough, with building upper ridging over
the western gulf coast. A rather pleasant summer morning across
the region, with temperatures mainly in the 70s, after early
morning lows in the mid- upper 50s inland (locally low 50s W-NW
of KRIC), with light NE flow allowing for slightly milder
lows in the low- mid 60s closer to the coast.

The sfc high slides east to a positions along the northeast and
mid-Atlantic coast by this evening. The resultant low-level flow
veers around to the E-SE by evening. We`ll start the day mainly
sunny in the morning, but the onshore flow will allow for an
afternoon CU field to develop between 5-7 kft AGL. A little
warmer but still comfortable, with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s at the coast, and in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont.
Dewpoint values remain in the 50s to lower 60s.

The surface high shifts offshore tonight, veering low-level
winds around to the SSE tonight. Mainly clear and still
comfortable with early morning lows ranging in from the upper
50s well inland, and 60-65 east of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Gradually warming Wednesday and Thursday

- Rain chances return to the forecast for the afternoon into the
  evening on Independence Day. Best rain chances remain W-NW of
  the Richmond Metro area into the VA piedmont.

Surface high pressure slowly shifts farther off the coast of
the mid-Atlantic/northeast coast Wed-Thu. Meanwhile, upper
ridging will build over the mid-South. Low-level flow slowly
becomes SSE on Wed. This should still be enough onshore flow to
keep the significant heat away on Wed, despite temperatures
warming back to about average. Highs mainly in the upper 80s
inland (lower 80s at the coast) under a partly to mostly sunny
sky, and dewpoints still in the lower 60s. Low-level flow
becomes more SSW Wed night and Thursday, with a noticeably more
muggy night Wed night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70F. The
sfc high will be far enough offshore Thursday/Independence Day
to allow for an increasing SSW flow, with hotter temperatures
and increased humidity levels returning (though not to the
level of what occurred on Sunday). Highs will be into the mid
90s inland with upper 80s/lower 90s at the coast. Dewpoints in
the upper 60s/lower 70s will lead to heat indices in the upper
90s to ~103F (but should be below heat advisory criteria). Rain
chances do return to the forecast, with models still showing
some isolated to widely scattered showers and storms popping up
along pre-frontal trough Thu afternoon and night. Rain chances
generally 20-40% for mainly late aftn/evening tstms (highest
PoPs NW of a Farmville-Richmond-Salisbury MD line). Partly
cloudy, warm and muggy/humid Thursday night with lows in the
low- mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity return and linger for Friday
  into the first part of next week. Remaining a bit unsettled
  with a chance for mainly late day and evening showers and
  storms each day.

After a brief break from the heat/humidity, there remains
strong model consensus that the heat and humidity return for the
late week period through at least the upcoming weekend and
likely into the first few days of next week. The upper ridge
will initially be positioned from the Gulf coast to the
Carolinas, slowly shifting E off the SE coast as it slowly
breaks down over the weekend. This will pump hot and humid air
back into the mid-Atlantic region, while also keeping a series
of upper troughs well off to our NW through the weekend (over
the upper midwest/northern Great Lakes). Rather weak flow at the
sfc with high pressure offshore will be conducive to a general
S-SW low level flow, but with some afternoon seabreeze
development possible.

Overall, highs look to average in the mid-upper 90s inland, and
90-95F closer to the coast Fri- Sat, and perhaps a few degrees
lower Sun-Mon as a weak cold front stalls or washes out in the
vicinity of the area. Have remained a little below the typical
high bias shown by NBM dewpoints, but still expect them to be
back in the low-mid 70s for the period, which would yield heat
indices in the 103-108F range Fri-Sun and in the 100-105 range
on Monday. As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/sctd
mainly aftn/evening tstms (PoPs 20-40%), with the best chance in
the piedmont and perhaps with the seabreeze, although uncertainty
remains high at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure is centered over Upstate NY as of 18z. This is
resulting in onshore flow with generally an E to ENE wind of
8-12kt. VFR with SCT-BKN CU inland with bases of 4-6kft. The
wind becomes calm to very light out of the SE tonight. Primarily
VFR tonight under a mostly clear sky. However, guidance does
indicate some MVFR vsby in BR at SBY 10-12z Wednesday.
Additionally, some shallow ground fog is possible at PHF and
ECG with the potential for brief vsby restrictions. VFR
Wednesday. The high shifts off the coast Wednesday and the wind
becomes S inland and E to SE along the coast with speeds of
5-10kt.

VFR conditions will prevail most of the time Wednesday night
through Sunday. There is a potential for early morning shallow
ground fog/low stratus with increasing low-level moisture. This
will also lead to a chc for aftn/evening showers/tstms as a slow
moving boundary approaches from the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Southeast/south winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt
Wednesday evening across the Chesapeake Bay.

-South winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the
coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening.

-A period of elevated southerly winds is possible this weekend with
Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.

Afternoon sfc analysis shows strong high pressure over the NE
CONUS building down into the local area, its center gradually
shifting offshore. Latest wind obs indicate easterly winds at
5-10kt over most locations. At the mouth of the bay and lower
bay, winds are slightly higher at 10-15kt. Winds diminish
tonight to ~5kt before becoming E/SE 10-15 kt with a few gusts
up to 20 kt across the bay Wed afternoon into Wed evening. Winds
become S by midnight Wed night. Highest winds are expected to
be across the upper bay Wed evening into Wed night where several
gusts up to 20 kt are possible. Local wind probs continue to
indicate a chance for sustained 18kt winds during this time
period, but probs are generally limited at 20-40% in the upper
bay. S winds increase to 15-20 kt late Thu afternoon into Thu
evening across the coastal waters. Probs for gusts of 25kt in
the coastal waters are low (<15%), but cannot entirely rule out
SCAs. S winds become elevated late Fri through Sat evening with
low- end SCAs possible. Daily chances for afternoon/evening
storms are possible from Thu into early next week.

Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this
morning. Seas build to 3-4 ft Thu afternoon through Sat night. A
brief period of 4-5 ft seas is possible across the coastal waters
from Chincoteague to Cape Charles Light VA Thu evening. There is a
moderate rip risk across the S beaches today (due to onshore flow
and 3 ft waves) with a low rip risk across the N beaches. The rip
risk across the S beaches likely increases late this afternoon into
this evening as swell and wind direction become orthogonal to the
coastline with tides retreating. However, given the time of day (22-
00z), will keep the rip risk moderate. Have upgraded all beaches to
a moderate rip risk on Wed due to favorable swell and wind direction
orthogonal to the coastline and 2-3 ft waves.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AM/RMM