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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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142 FXUS61 KAKQ 291818 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 218 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity return today, and especially Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain will be possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The front pushes south of the area Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and lower humidity Monday and Tuesday. Heat and humidity return later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1155 AM EDT Saturday... The latest WX analysis indicates a WSW flow aloft over the region, in between a broad upper ridge centered across the SE CONUS, and a strong upper trough over central Canada into the upper midwest. At the sfc, the pressure pattern is fairly weak, with high pressure well off the coast of New England, and low pressure over Lake Superior. There is a very weak/subtle boundary across NC and a warm front over the upper OH Valley pushing into the central Appalachians. It is quite humid with dew pts generally in the lower 70s well inland to the mid 70s near the coast. A few showers continue over eastern NC, and have mostly remained S of the Albemarle sound this morning, but may spread into NE NC and southside Hampton roads over the next few hrs. Will maintain PoPs to around 20% in these areas. CAMs are not very excited about any showers/storms later this aftn/early evening, but will keep a slight chc over the NW for where the upper heights are a bit lower closer to the approaching upper trough. The models also depict some weak sfc troughing advancing to the E of the mountains later tonight. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s inland/Piedmont, and in the mid 80s to around 90F near the Bay and along the coast. With dewpoints this aftn of 70-75F, heat indices will top out from 97-103. Warm and very humid tonight with a SW low level flow keeping min temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 410 AM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - Hot and very humid conditions expected on Sunday with dangerous heat indices around 105F. - A cold front brings potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rain Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. An upper trough and a strong cold front (for this time of year, at least) will approach the area Sun, crossing the region Sun night through Mon morning. Ahead of the front, S/SW flow will allow hot and very humid conditions to continue. Cloud cover and potential morning pcpn could hinder high temps, but still expecting highs in the lower to mid 90s. With dew pts in the mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat indices around 105F are in the forecast. While the potential for morning convection exists, the main threat for sctd to numerous storms will be in the aftn and into the overnight hours. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected, esply for ESE portions of the FA, where PWs will approach 2.5". As such, WPC has placed this portion of the region in a Marginal ERO. Instability provided by the heat/humidity along with moderate shear will allow for some storms to be strong to severe, despite the stronger winds aloft being to the N. Thus, there is a Slight risk for severe storms for just about the entire FA, and a Marginal risk for coastal NE NC. Pcpn will taper off and end from NW to SE from late Sun night through Mon morning. Lows Sun night will range from the mid 60s N, to the lower 70s far SE. Pcpn will push SE of NE NC by Mon aftn, with N winds ushering much drier air into the region during the day. The sky will become mostly or partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Clear or mostly clear and comfortable Mon night, as sfc high pressure builds in from the N. Lows will be mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Saturday... High pressure will bring dry weather through mid week. Mostly sunny and generally comfortable on Tue with highs mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Hotter conditions and more humidity returns for Wed, then very hot and humid for Thu and Fri. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed, and in the mid to upper 90s on the Fourth of July and Fri (lower 90s over the Lower MD and VA ern shore both days). With dewpoints climbing back into the upper 60s to lower 70s both days, there is the potential for heat indices over 100. There also will be a chance for aftn tstms both days. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... High pressure centered off the New England was leading to light E/ESE flow at area terminals early this morning. As a result, stratus and lower SC were developing over portions of the region. Guidance continues to favor low-end MVFR, but cannot rule out patchy pockets of IFR stratus, esply in/near central VA (including RIC) until around 12Z this morning. Not expecting much in the way of VSBY restrictions. A few showers are also possible at ECG through this morning. For this aftn, mainly dry conditions expected though a very brief shower or storm is possible at any terminal. SCT CU again redevelops with a 7-12 kt S or SE wind. Mainly dry conditions continue into tonight, with just an isolated threat of a shower or storm. Sctd to numerous showers/tstms are likely Sun aftn through Sun night, some of which could be strong to severe. High pressure and drier conditions return for later Mon morning through Tue. && .MARINE... As of 220 PM EDT Saturday... Key messages: - A High Rip Risk for eastern shore (VA/MD) beaches today, with moderate Rip Risk for SE VA & NE NC. Moderate Rip for all beaches Sunday. - A brief period of SCA level winds is expected in the bay late this afternoon and this evening, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect during this period. - A period of SCA conditions is very likely for most of the waters on Monday with northerly winds behind a cold front. High pressure is centered off the New England coast early this aftn. The wind is mainly SE 10-15kt, with some lingering 3-4ft swell over the ocean. High pressure sinks S off the coast tonight. There is a period of channeling across the Ches. Bay late this aftn and evening, with a SSE wind of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt. SCAs for the Ches. Bay remain in effect from 4 PM to 1 AM. Elsewhere, expected a SSE wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt. The wind shifts to SSW later tonight and diminishes to 10-15kt. Seas should remain 3- 4ft tonight, but could touch 5ft out near 20nm off the MD coast, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches. Bay. A rather strong cold front for summer approaches from the NW Sunday. The wind should generally remain SW 10-15kt out ahead of the front. However, some strong to severe tstms could bring some locally stronger wind gusts. A decent CAA surge will follow the cold front late Sunday night into early Monday morning with a NNW wind of 15-25kt. Seas build to 3-5ft, with 2-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. SCAs are likely for the Ches. Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound, and potentially the coastal waters S of Cape Charles. The wind remains N 10-15kt Monday aftn, and then becomes NE 10-15kt Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds SE toward the New England coast. Seas slowly subside to ~3ft. High pressure settles S off the coast by the middle of next week with the wind becoming southerly. A high rip current risk continues through this evening for the northern beaches with a moderate S. A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all beaches Sunday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG SHORT TERM...AM/TMG LONG TERM...AM/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AJZ