782
FXUS61 KAKQ 071853
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
253 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The post-tropical remnants of Chantal lift north of the area
through tonight, with showers and storms tapering off this
evening over coastal VA and Maryland. Behind the storm, mild,
muggy conditions are expected tonight, with very warm and humid
conditions are expected for the latter half of next week. A
rather stagnant, unsettled pattern takes hold for the rest of
the week, with mainly hit or miss type afternoon and evening
showers and storms possible each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Remnants of TD Chantal brought pockets of additional heavy
  rainfall to the area. A Flood Watch is in effect for the
  Northern Neck and portions of the MD Eastern Shore through
  late afternoon.

- Drying out, with warm and muggy conditions overnight.

Latest sfc analysis indicates remnant low pressure from post-
tropical depression Chantal oriented over the upper eastern
shore of the Delmarva. Showers have redeveloped largely as
expected along the sfc trough, with the remnants becoming more
elongated and frontal in nature, typical for a post-tropical
evolution. Locally heavy rainfall continues across the northern
neck and lower eastern shore, with more general isolated to
widely scattered convective showers mainly along and east of
I-95 this afternoon, manly over VA and lower MD. The remnant low
will continue to weaken and slip NNE, with locally heavy
rainfall to follow along with it. Meso analysis continuing to
show pockets of 1500-2000 j/kg MUCAPE with PW between 2.2-2.5"
across the eastern half of the area, further aiding in
redevelopment of showers and storms. Axis of heaviest rainfall
looks to shift from the coastal northern neck over to the bay
side of the MD Eastern Shore through 00z or so, which continues
to be well supported by the 12z HREF, which is highlighting
Dorchester and Wicomico counties in a 3-hr PMM QPF with 30-50%
probs for 3" in that time. We will continue the Flood Watch as
is for a bit longer, with the idea that VA counties may be able
to be cleared Flood Watch before the 21z end time. MD counties
likely can also be cleared out on time given the increasingly
progressive nature of the showers. Farther SSW, isolated showers
and storms decrease in areal coverage for the balance of the
day, with far western sections likely not to see much more in
the way of showers.

Decreasing clouds, warm and muggy overnight with lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Some patchy fog possible toward morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- A weakening cold front approaches the area through midweek,
  then stalls north of the area. This front will be the focus
  for afternoon and evening storms tomorrow and through late
  week.

- A Slight Risk for severe storms is now in place for much of
  the northern half of our area, including central and eastern
  VA, Richmond Metro and the bay side of the MD eastern shore.
  A Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for the rest of
  the area.

- A Slight Risk for Heavy Rainfall is also in place for the
  northern half of the area, with a Marginal Risk farther SSE.

-  A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of the area for
   Tuesday.

More typical July weather is on the way for the midweek period,
with the hot and moderately humid airmass returning, along with
daily thunderstorm chances. An upper trough slides across the
Great Lakes tomorrow, shunting a weakening sfc front toward the
region from the northwest. As is typical for this time of year,
the boundary is likely to become stalled just NNW of the FA
tomorrow evening, with that front then meandering in place for
the rest of the week.

Heat Headlines: Highs tomorrow will be in the low-mid 90s,
which in tandem with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s bring heat
indices approaching 105 for much of the area (primarily along
and E of I-95). Further complicating matters, we expect late
afternoon and evening scattered storms across the area with
highest coverage in the NW by evening, shifting over to the
Eastern Shore later in the evening. That said, late timing
allows a full to nearly full heating day across the area, with
most if not the entire area reaching 103-108 deg heat indices,
not unusual for early July, but nonetheless within Heat Advisory
criteria. For that reason, a Heat Advisory has been issued for
most of the area, with the exception of the far NW that may mix
a little bit better and could see mid afternoon convection.

Severe/Heavy Rain threat: To that end, SPC has upgraded much of
the northern half of the area (except coastal MD/VA eastern
shore E of US-13) to a convective Slight Risk for severe, with a
Marginal Risk for the rest of the area, with damaging wind
gusts as the main threat. However, confidence is low since the
flow aloft looks rather week and storms will be relying on large
amounts of instability and water-loaded downdrafts. A Slight
Risk ERO will also be in place across the northern half of the
area nearer to the stalling front, with a Marginal Risk ERO
for south central VA and SE VA/NE NC. Again with slow steering
flow, instances of flash flooding remain a concern. Will not
extend or re-issue Flood Watches at this time for tomorrow or
Wednesday, but additional targeted flood headlines may well be
necessary tomorrow and as the week wears on given the rather
stagnant/persistent warm/muggy setup, with numerous rounds of
sct convection and heavy rainfall likely.

Wednesday: Wednesday looks largely the same, except a couple of
degrees cooler with highs in the low 90s due to earlier and
more widespread storm coverage, with the stalled front again
serving as the focus for afternoon and evening convection.
Another Slight Risk north/Marginal south for heavy rainfall on
Wednesday, with a Marginal severe risk area wide. Heavy rain
and isolated flooding will again be possible with gusty winds
the main severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Staying seasonably very warm and humid through the end of the
  week with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

The typically warm and unsettled pattern continues to end the
week and into the weekend. Highs each day will be around norms
for this time of year i.e. upper 80s/around 90. We will continue
to see diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day through Sun.
Thursday looks like the highest coverage day of the period as
of now owing to potential development of weak low pressure near
the FA/along the front. Will say that exact details are
difficult to latch on to at this point since a lot of it will
be conditional upon where the meandering front goes and when,
plus the weaker flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

The wind has shifted to SW behind the departing post-tropical
remnants of Chantal. We`ve seen some gusts to around 20kt
possible toward the coast as well behind the departing system.
CIGs are largely back to VFR inland, with MVFR along the MD
coast, LCL IFR CIG/VSBY in heavier convective showers. Mainly
dry and VFR conditions this evening. Potential for some ground
fog late tonight at SBY/PHF, though probabilities are low enough
to hold out of the terminal forecast for now.

Outlook: A typical very warm and humid midweek period across
area terminals through Friday. Late day and evening scattered
showers/tstms are likely, along with some early morning ground
fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have been issued for the northern coastal waters until 1 AM
  tonight to account for elevated seas.

- The SCAs have been extended until the afternoon/evening for
  the southern coastal waters, Lower Chesapeake Bay, and
  Currituck Sound. An SCA has been issued for the Lower James
  River until 4 PM this afternoon.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail Tuesday-Friday with daily thunderstorm
  chances.

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk remains in place for all beaches today
  and Tuesday.

Early morning wx analysis shows TD Chantal lifting NNE near the VA-
NC border (well inland). Winds are SE at 10-20 kt on the waters,
with ~4 ft seas and 2-3 ft waves. The remnants of Chantal slowly
track to the NE today (and into the Lower Eastern Shore by late
aftn). This will allow winds to gradually veer to the south today
and increase to 15-20 kt (highest on the ocean...but frequent 20 kt
gusts are likely on the Lower Bay/Lower James during the day). In
addition, seas build to 4-5 ft (perhaps 6 ft 20 nm offshore of Ocean
City, MD). Therefore, have extended the SCAs for the ocean until 7
PM-1 AM, and lower bay/Currituck Sound until 4 PM. Have also issued
an SCA for the Lower James until 4 PM. Winds are forecast diminish
tonight/Tuesday as the low slowly exits (although a brief wind surge
to near SCA levels is possible on the bay/Lower James tonight).
However, 5 ft seas may linger across the northern coastal
waters through part of tonight (that is why the SCAs were
extended until 1 AM for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles).
Variable, but prevailing sub- SCA, marine conditions return from
Tuesday through Friday with afternoon sea breezes and more
typical summertime diurnally- driven shower/storm activity.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues across all
beaches today and Tuesday. This is due to ~3 ft nearshore waves and
high period swell with periods up to 15 seconds possible.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ021>023.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075>078-085-
     521-522.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-511>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ632>634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AC/MAM
MARINE...ERI/MAM