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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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135 FXUS61 KAKQ 010650 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and a cold front will push south of the entire region by around midday today. Behind the front, north then northeast winds associated with high pressure will bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity for today and Tuesday. Heat and humidity return later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1015 PM EDT Sunday... Key messages: - Severe Tstm Watch has been cancelled. One last round of storms is expected overnight, but these most likely remain below severe levels. - PoPs diminish from NW to SE overnight, lingering heavy rain possible in the SE through ~4am, then much cooler and more comfortable Monday. The Severe Tstm Watch has been cancelled and the cold front is approaching from the north. With the convection earlier, there is much less in the way of instability in place...but enough that there will likely be one last round of showers/tstms overnight accompanying the front (highest PoPs E/SE). These should remain below severe levels, but localized 35-45 mph gusts are possible. Winds shift abruptly to the N/NE in the wake of the front between around midnight and 6 am from NW to SE. Winds become gusty to 20-30 mph as much cooler and drier air filters in. Lows will range from the upper 50s NW to the lwr 70s far SE. Some lingering clouds and showers in the far SE Monday morning, but elsewhere the sky will become mostly sunny. With dew pts falling into the 50s most areas and highs holding in the upper 70s (SE coast) to around 80F/lower 80s elsewhere, peak heat indices Monday will be an astounding 30 to 35 degrees lower than today. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... Clear or mostly clear and comfortable Mon night, as sfc high pressure builds in from the N. Lows will be mainly in the mid 50s to around 60F along and W of I-95 and 60-65F to the east. The center of the sfc high will move to the srn New England coast Tue. Generally mostly sunny with SCT aftn cu and still rather comfortable with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast, and in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew pts remain in the 50s to lower 60s. The sfc high will sit just off the New England coast Tue night. Clear to partly cloudy and still rather comfortable with lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. The models show good consensus for the return of the upper ridge over the southeast CONUS by midweek, with Wed being the transition day. With sfc high pressure still centered just off the coast Wed, conditions will be warmer but still near average for early July, with highs in the mid 80s to around 90, with humidity levels still not too bad, along with no chc for rain. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 405 PM EDT Sunday... - Key Message: Heat and humidity return. After a nice break from the heat, there is strong model consensus for a return to hot and humid weather starting Thursday/Independence Day. An upper level ridge will be in place over the SE CONUS, slowly shifting off the east coast into next weekend. Highs look to range from the mid to upper 90s well inland and in the 90-95F range closer to the coast Thu-Sat, perhaps trending slightly cooler by Sunday as the next cold front pushes in from the W. With dewpoints climbing back into the 70-75F range, heat indices will likely be at least 100-105F. As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/scattered mainly aftn/evening tstms. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 220 AM EDT Monday... Expect mainly VFR or MVFR conditions at the TAF sites until around midday today, as sctd showers and a few tstms, and a cold front pushes through the area. Any heavier showers or a tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR flight restrictions. Winds shift to the NNE this morning and will be gusty, esply at the coast. Could see a period of MVFR CIGs at PHF/ORF/ECG early this behind the front. Then, mainly VFR conditions expected for this aftn through Wed, as high pressure provides dry weather. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key messages: - A Moderate Rip Current Risk for all area beaches today. - A period of SCA conditions is expected across the entire marine area through late morning/early afternoon. Occasional gusts of ~35 knots are possible on the bay between 3 and 9 AM Monday morning. - High pressure builds from the northwest for the midweek period, with more benign marine conditions Tuesday through midweek. Latest analysis reveals sfc low pressure off the New England coast, with the associated surface cold front dropping across the waters early this morning. As of 07z, winds have become NNW over the upper bay and northern coastal waters with W-SW winds over the middle and lower bay and the southern coastal waters. The front, which is relatively strong for early July, drops across the remainder of the area through 10-12z with a decent CAA surge post-frontal. NNW winds of 20-25kt (w/ gusts to 30 kt) are expected. A few gusts to 35 kt are likely at elevated sites on the Ches Bay, and a SMW or two may be needed before or just after sunrise this morning. SCA remain in effect for the entire marine area into later this morning for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles, and into the afternoon elsewhere. Seas build to 3-5ft through mid- morning, waves increase to 2-4ft waves in the bay. Winds slowly diminish this afternoon, turning to the NE 10-15kt tonight into Tuesday as high pressure builds SE toward the New England coast. Some gusts to ~20 kt will be possible in the lower bay and lower James before midnight tonight/early Tuesday before gradually diminishing. Seas slowly subside to ~3ft this evening as high pressure builds to the NW of the local waters. The high eventually settles S off the coastal Carolinas by midweek with the wind becoming southerly. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all beaches for the rest of today and Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630>634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/TMG AVIATION...TMG MARINE...AM/MAM