925
FXUS61 KAKQ 011928
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
328 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes tonight and becomes
centered off the coast on Tuesday, keeping below normal
temperatures and dry conditions in place. Warmer but dry
conditions prevail Wednesday, with heat and humidity returning
late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

- Key Message: Dry, pleasant with below average temperatures
  tonight/Tuesday.

The latest WX analysis depicts >1025mb sfc high pressure,
centered across the Great Lakes, continuing to build SE into the
local area. Aloft, the flow is NW in the wake of the departing
upper trough. A refreshingly cool dry airmass has spread over
the local area with temperatures mainly in the mid 70s to near
80F, dew pts in the 50s, and N winds of 10-20 mph. This is a
dramatic change from 24 hrs when some areas were experiencing
heat indices ~110F. SCT-BKN cumulus will diminish over the next
few hrs leaving a mainly clear sky this evening/overnight. The
sfc high is forecast to move ESE overnight, becoming centered
across the NE CONUS early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will
average in the mid 50s to around 60F well inland, with low-mid
60s closer to the coast . Light or clam winds overnight inland,
with onshore flow of 5-10mph SE VA/NE NC at the coast.

The sfc high will become centered along the coast from southern
New England to the Delmarva Tuesday aftn, keeping an easterly
flow in place in the low levels. Mainly sunny in the morning
with SCT aftn cumulus. A little warmer but still comfortable,
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast, and in
the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew pts remain in the 50s to lower
60s.



&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...


 The sfc high will sit just off the New England and Mid Atlc
coast Tue night and Wed. Clear to partly cloudy and still rather
comfortable Tue night, with lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper
60s. The models show good consensus for the return of the upper
ridge over the SE CONUS by midweek, with Wed being the
transition day. With sfc high pressure still centered just off
the coast Wed, conditions will be warmer and just slightly more
humid, but still near average for early July, with highs mainly
in the mid to upper 80s (lower 80s at the coast). Generally
mostly sunny again. Dry and more humid Wed night with lows in
the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

- Key Message: Heat and humidity return.

After a nice break from the heat, there is strong model consensus
for a return to hot and humid weather starting Thu/Independence
Day. An upper level ridge will be in place over the SE CONUS,
slowly shifting off the east coast into next weekend. Highs look
to range from the mid to upper 90s well inland, and in the 90-95F
range closer to the coast Thu-Sat. Perhaps trending slightly
cooler by Sun, as the next cold front pushes in from the W.
With dewpoints climbing back into the 70-75F range, heat indices
will likely be at least 100-105F. As for PoPs, expect daily
chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

Expect mainly VFR or MVFR conditions at the TAF sites until
around midday today, as sctd showers and a few tstms, and a
cold front pushes through the area. Any heavier showers or a
tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR flight restrictions.
Winds shift to the NNE this morning and will be gusty, esply at
the coast. Could see a period of MVFR CIGs at PHF/ORF/ECG early
this behind the front. Then, mainly VFR conditions expected for
this aftn through Wed, as high pressure provides dry weather.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been extended until early evening
  (7PM/23z) for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River,
  Currituck Sound, and southern Atlantic coastal waters.

Cooler and much drier air continues to spill southward across the
waters in the wake of this morning`s cold front. 1026mb high
pressure is centered over Michigan with a weak inverted trough noted
just east of the higher terrain from NC into VA. Winds are out of
the N or NNW across the waters this afternoon with continued 15-20
kt flow across the Ches Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound.
Offshore, winds are not as strong, generally N 10-15 kt. Waves in
the bay are generally 2-3 ft while seas offshore range from 3-4 ft N
to 4-6 ft S.

Have extended SCA headlines in the aforementioned areas until
23z/7pm with continued cool/dry advection and hi-res guidance
showing 15-20 kt flow persisting into the early evening. High
pressure builds closer to the area tonight with decreasing
winds. N or NE flow will continue for SE VA and NE NC waters
this evening and SCA headlines may need to be extended further
as NE winds almost always result in prolonged higher seas than
guidance would suggest. Waves in the bay should subside to 1-3
ft by tonight. The majority of the work week will feature benign
boating conditions as high pressure gradually becomes anchored
offshore, allowing winds to transition from E-SE-S. By Thursday,
the next cold front will attempt to move toward the region from
the Ohio Valley with lee troughing over inland VA allowing the
pressure gradient along the coast to tighten modestly. The
chance for showers and storms will also increase late week into
the weekend with associated enhancements to local
winds/waves/seas.

Moderate rip current risk is forecast for the southern beaches on
Tuesday with a low risk for the northern beaches. A low rip risk is
forecast for all beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2024 Preliminary Temperature data:

- Site: Avg Temp/Departure

- RIC: 78.8 (+3.8) (4th warmest)
- ORF: 79.0 (+2.3) (5th warmest)
- SBY: 74.6 (+1.9) (not top 10)
- ECG: 76.9 (+0.7) (not top 10)

Rainfall was below average, but with locally heavy rain on the
30th, no site ranked among the top 10 driest.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>634-638-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...LKB/TMG
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...AKQ