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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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620 FXUS61 KAKQ 010218 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1018 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain are expected into tonight as a cold front moves in from the northwest. The front pushes south of the area Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and lower humidity Monday and Tuesday. Heat and humidity return later in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1015 PM EDT Sunday... Key messages: - Severe Tstm Watch has been cancelled. One last round of storms is expected overnight, but these most likely remain below severe levels. - PoPs diminish from NW to SE overnight, lingering heavy rain possible in the SE through ~4am, then much cooler and more comfortable Monday. The Severe Tstm Watch has been cancelled and the cold front is approaching from the north. With the convection earlier, there is much less in the way of instability in place...but enough that there will likely be one last round of showers/tstms overnight accompanying the front (highest PoPs E/SE). These should remain below severe levels, but localized 35-45 mph gusts are possible. Winds shift abruptly to the N/NE in the wake of the front between around midnight and 6 am from NW to SE. Winds become gusty to 20-30 mph as much cooler and drier air filters in. Lows will range from the upper 50s NW to the lwr 70s far SE. Some lingering clouds and showers in the far SE Monday morning, but elsewhere the sky will become mostly sunny. With dew pts falling into the 50s most areas and highs holding in the upper 70s (SE coast) to around 80F/lower 80s elsewhere, peak heat indices Monday will be an astounding 30 to 35 degrees lower than today. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... Clear or mostly clear and comfortable Mon night, as sfc high pressure builds in from the N. Lows will be mainly in the mid 50s to around 60F along and W of I-95 and 60-65F to the east. The center of the sfc high will move to the srn New England coast Tue. Generally mostly sunny with SCT aftn cu and still rather comfortable with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast, and in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont. Dew pts remain in the 50s to lower 60s. The sfc high will sit just off the New England coast Tue night. Clear to partly cloudy and still rather comfortable with lows in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. The models show good consensus for the return of the upper ridge over the southeast CONUS by midweek, with Wed being the transition day. With sfc high pressure still centered just off the coast Wed, conditions will be warmer but still near average for early July, with highs in the mid 80s to around 90, with humidity levels still not too bad, along with no chc for rain. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 405 PM EDT Sunday... - Key Message: Heat and humidity return. After a nice break from the heat, there is strong model consensus for a return to hot and humid weather starting Thursday/Independence Day. An upper level ridge will be in place over the SE CONUS, slowly shifting off the east coast into next weekend. Highs look to range from the mid to upper 90s well inland and in the 90-95F range closer to the coast Thu-Sat, perhaps trending slightly cooler by Sunday as the next cold front pushes in from the W. With dewpoints climbing back into the 70-75F range, heat indices will likely be at least 100-105F. As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/scattered mainly aftn/evening tstms. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 745 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail this evening outside of showers/tstms. Scattered to numerous showers/tstms will persist through early Mon AM before moving to the south of the terminals following a cold frontal passage. Some of the storms could be strong to severe (esply through 03z/11 PM), with brief wind gusts of 30-50 kt possible. Watching the strong/severe storms north of RIC...which could impact them between 830-10PM if they hold together. Any tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR-LIFR flight restrictions in heavy rain. Winds shift to the NNE Mon morning and will be gusty, esply at the coast. Could see a period of MVFR CIGs near the coast Monday AM behind the front. Otherwise, VFR through the period outside of showers/tstms. High pressure and drier conditions return for later Mon morning/early Mon aftn through Tue, and mainly dry Wed. && .MARINE... As of 230 PM EDT Sunday... Key messages: - A Moderate Rip Current Risk for all area beaches through Monday. - A period of SCA conditions is expected for the bay, lower James and Currituck sound late tonight into Monday with northerly winds behind a cold front. SCAs have also been added to the southern coastal waters for late tonight into early Monday. - High pressure builds from the northwest for the midweek period, with more benign marine conditions Tuesday through midweek. Latest sfc analysis indicates a cold front to the NW of local waters, and its associated low pressure just to the NW of Maine. Ahead of the front, some scattered thunderstorms have formed, which may lead to brief gusts in excess of 40kt, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Additional storms are expected later tonight as the front passes through the region. Latest wind obs show a S/SW wind of 10-15kt with a few gusts approaching 20kt. Seas are a bit slower to come up than forecast with buoy obs showing 2-3ft. Waves are 1-2ft this afternoon. The previously referenced cold front, a strong cold front relative to late June/July, crosses into the area after midnight late tonight/early Monday, with a decent CAA surge post-frontal. NNW winds of 15-25kt expected. Seas build to 3-5ft, with 2-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay. SCAs have been hoisted for the Ches. Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound. Went ahead and raised SCAs for coastal waters S of Cape Charles due to a window for 25-30kt gusts in the few hours on either side of sunrise Monday. Winds remain N ~15-20 kt into Monday aftn, before diminishing to NE 10-15kt Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds SE toward the New England coast. Some gusts to ~20 kt will be possible in the lower bay and lower James Monday night before gradually diminishing. Seas slowly subside to ~3ft by late Monday night, as high pressure builds into the region. The high eventually settles S off the coastal Carolinas by midweek with the wind becoming southerly. Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk is forecast for all beaches for the rest of today and Monday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>634-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ERI/LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...LKB/TMG AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...AM/MAM