350
FXUS61 KAKQ 041950
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
350 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast gradually settles south into the
western Atlantic through late this week. Heat and humidity build
over the region today through early next week. Daily chances of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms also
return today into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid conditions return today.

- Rain chances return to the forecast for the afternoon into the
  evening on Independence Day and again on Friday and Saturday.
  Best rain chances remain W-NW of the Richmond Metro area into
  the VA Piedmont.

Latest analysis reveals upper ridge building across the
southeast from the gulf coast this morning, with a trough over
Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure continues to push
farther offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast, with a cold front
well to the NW of the region approaching the Ohio Valley. A
warmer and slightly more humid start to the day with
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints around
70F this morning.

A hotter and more humid Independence Day is expected, courtesy
of increasing SSW flow w/the surface high pushing out into the
western Atlantic. High temperatures range from the upper
80s/lower 90s along the coast, to the mid 90s inland. NBM
dewpoint numbers already verifying a few degrees to high, and
will continue to undercut them by about a category today.
Nonetheless, more humid today, with PWs to climb to ~2.00 by
this evening. Forecast dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F
during peak heating result in heat indices well into the upper
90s to lower 100s.

There is a potential for widely scattered showers/tstms later
today. Shortwave energy will ride along the northern periphery
of the sub-tropical ridge over the Ohio Valley and interior
northeast through this afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered
convection is then expected to develop to our northwest, focused
along the pre-frontal/lee trough by early this afternoon.
Showers and storms are then shown by a majority of CAMs pushing
E-NE into the local area late this afternoon, before slowly
weakening and decreasing in areal coverage this evening. Best
rain chances are around 60% for the NW Piedmont, but again taper
to 20-40% central VA to the VA northern neck and eastern shore
in the late afternoon and evening as storms gradually weaken. A
convective Marginal Risk remains in place from the SPC for the
far NW, with gusty winds from wet microbursts the main hazard.

Mainly dry overnight, aside from a lingering shower or two over
the eastern shore. Some patchy fog/low stratus possible late
tonight/early Friday. Otherwise partly cloudy, warm and
muggy/humid tonight with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Heat and humidity build for Friday and Saturday. Heat index
  values around 100 are expected on the eastern shore, with heat
  indices in the 103-108F range west of the bay. Heat Advisories
  are likely to be needed for much of the area both Friday and
  Saturday.

- Additional chances for late day showers and storms will exist
  both days, again mainly focused over the piedmont.

PWs trend up further for Friday, reaching 2-2.25" by Friday
morning (*near daily max value for WAL), with daily maxes
possibly exceeded (PW 2.25-2.5") by Saturday. Forecast highs
Friday and Saturday should be similar to those of today.
However, it will be a bit more humid and with dewpoints slightly
higher, heat indices at or above 105F are likely for central
and SE VA and into NE NC, and Heat Advisories are likely to be
needed for much of the area.

There is chance of afternoon showers/tstms Friday along the lee
trough lingering over the area. Partly cloudy, warm, and muggy
Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s. The weakening
cold front drops into the area Saturday. Once again hot and very
humid ahead of the boundary with highs in the lower to mid 90s
and again heat indices of 105-109F are looking increasingly
likely. This boundary should become the focus for more
showers/tstms by afternoon. A very moist and unstable airmass
will be in place and the H5 flow does increase to 30-35kt across
the NW, so some stronger tstms are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Near or slightly above normal temperatures, but very humid
  through the period. Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance
  for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms each day.

Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be
near or slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to
lower 90s. It will still be very humid across the area, and with
lee troughs or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the
region, expect chances for mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms
each day. Heat indices will mainly range from the mid 90s to
lower 100s Mon through Wed. Warm and muggy nights with lows
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail as of 18z with surface high pressure
centered off the Southeast coast. The wind is mainly S to SSW
~10kt with FEW-SCT CU developing with bases of 5-6kft. A cluster
of showers/tstms has developed over the higher terrain to the W
and is currently crossing the Blue Ridge. These showers/tstms
are expected to approach RIC after 20z, and mainly in the 21-23z
timeframe. The latest guidance suggests much of this activity
dissipates from 23-01z prior to reaching the remaining
terminals. These showers/tstms could produce some stronger wind
gusts at RIC along with brief vsby restrictions in rain.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail tonight into Friday
morning under a partly cloudy sky with a 5-10kt SSW wind. By
Friday aftn, there is a ~30% chc of showers/tstms at RIC, and a
15-20% chc at the remaining terminals. The wind should mainly be
SSW 8-12kt Friday aftn, but locally variable and gusty in and
near any tstms.

A weakening and slow moving cold front settles into the region
Saturday. This will bring a higher chc (40-60%) of aftn/evening
showers/tstms. This front settles near the coast Sunday and
washes out, with a remnant boundary lingering over the area
Monday/Tuesday. The highest chances (30-40%) shift into SE VA/NE
NC Sunday, and then generally 30-40% inland and 15-30% toward
the coast Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect across portions of the
  Chesapeake Bay and Virginia coastal waters late this afternoon
  into tonight.

- There is a high rip risk today across the northern beaches
  and a moderate rip risk across the southern beaches.

- A period of elevated, diurnally-driven southerly winds is
  possible Friday and Saturday with Small Craft Advisory
  conditions possible.

An elongated area of high pressure is situated just offshore this
afternoon with a weak front well to the NW of local waters. Latest
wind obs reflect SSE winds that are generally 5-10kt, but a few
sites in the northern bay and MD coastal waters show 10-15kt. The
diurnal pattern of increased winds in the evening hours continues
today. SSE winds of 15-20kt are expected in the coastal waters and
middle/lower Ches Bay, ~10kt in the rivers and Currituck Sound. SCAs
are in effect for the lower and middle bay through the evening.
While winds fall a bit below criteria for coastal waters, seas
around 5ft near 20nm are expected for some of the coastal water
zones, so SCAs are in effect from Cape Charles to Chincoteague into
late tonight. Winds diminish to 10-15kt and turn SSW late tonight
through tomorrow morning. Friday follows a similar pattern as today,
except the evening increase looks to be higher in the coastal waters
(15-20kt) than in the bay (10-15kt). Additional SCAs may be needed
for northern coastal waters Friday evening for gusts of 25kt and
seas of 4-5ft. Similar conditions expected Sat, then lighter winds
expected Sunday.

Seas this afternoon are around 3ft, waves are 1-2ft. Seas pick up to
3-5ft overnight, then fall back to 3-4ft Friday morning. As winds
over coastal waters Fri, seas will increase to 4-5ft. Seas 3-4ft
expected Sat. Waves will follow a general pattern of 1-2ft during
the early morning-early afternoon hours, then increasing to 2-3ft in
the evening hours with the diurnal wind increase.

High rip current risk continues at the northern beaches through the
evening due to a near shore-normal swell with longer periods. A
moderate rip current risk in place for southern beaches. The
dominate wave direction becomes less shore-normal tomorrow, so will
maintain a moderate risk for both northern and southern beaches
tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6)

        7/4          7/5       7/6
RIC   100/2002    102/2012   105/1977
ORF    98/1997     98/2012   102/1881
SBY   100/1919    102/2012   102/2010
ECG   100/1997    100/2012    99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 4-6)

         7/4         7/5       7/6
RIC    77/1900     79/2012    80/2012
ORF    79/2012     80/1999    80/1999
SBY    78/2012     81/2012    77/2012
ECG    78/2012     77/2018    78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for MDZ021-022.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ631-
     632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AM
CLIMATE...