142
FXUS61 KAKQ 291818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
218 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity return today, and especially Sunday ahead of
an approaching cold front. Strong to severe storms and locally
heavy rain will be possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
The front pushes south of the area Monday morning, bringing
cooler temperatures and lower humidity Monday and Tuesday. Heat
and humidity return later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM EDT Saturday...

The latest WX analysis indicates a WSW flow aloft over the
region, in between a broad upper ridge centered across the SE
CONUS, and a strong upper trough over central Canada into the
upper midwest. At the sfc, the pressure pattern is fairly weak,
with high pressure well off the coast of New England, and low
pressure over Lake Superior. There is a very weak/subtle
boundary across NC and a warm front over the upper OH Valley
pushing into the central Appalachians. It is quite humid with
dew pts generally in the lower 70s well inland to the mid 70s
near the coast. A few showers continue over eastern NC, and have
mostly remained S of the Albemarle sound this morning, but may
spread into NE NC and southside Hampton roads over the next few
hrs. Will maintain PoPs to around 20% in these areas. CAMs are
not very excited about any showers/storms later this aftn/early
evening, but will keep a slight chc over the NW for where the
upper heights are a bit lower closer to the approaching upper
trough. The models also depict some weak sfc troughing
advancing to the E of the mountains later tonight. Highs today
will be in the lower to mid 90s inland/Piedmont, and in the mid
80s to around 90F near the Bay and along the coast. With
dewpoints this aftn of 70-75F, heat indices will top out from
97-103.

Warm and very humid tonight with a SW low level flow keeping
min temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- Hot and very humid conditions expected on Sunday with
  dangerous heat indices around 105F.

- A cold front brings potential for strong to severe storms and
  heavy rain Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.



An upper trough and a strong cold front (for this time of year, at
least) will approach the area Sun, crossing the region Sun night
through Mon morning. Ahead of the front, S/SW flow will allow
hot and very humid conditions to continue. Cloud cover and
potential morning pcpn could hinder high temps, but still
expecting highs in the lower to mid 90s. With dew pts in the
mid 70s in most areas during peak heating, dangerous heat indices
around 105F are in the forecast. While the potential for morning
convection exists, the main threat for sctd to numerous storms
will be in the aftn and into the overnight hours. Moderate to
heavy rainfall is expected, esply for ESE portions of the FA,
where PWs will approach 2.5". As such, WPC has placed this
portion of the region in a Marginal ERO. Instability provided by
the heat/humidity along with moderate shear will allow for some
storms to be strong to severe, despite the stronger winds aloft
being to the N. Thus, there is a Slight risk for severe storms
for just about the entire FA, and a Marginal risk for coastal NE
NC. Pcpn will taper off and end from NW to SE from late Sun
night through Mon morning. Lows Sun night will range from the
mid 60s N, to the lower 70s far SE.

Pcpn will push SE of NE NC by Mon aftn, with N winds ushering
much drier air into the region during the day. The sky will
become mostly or partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Clear or mostly clear and comfortable Mon night, as sfc
high pressure builds in from the N. Lows will be mainly in the
upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure will bring dry weather through mid week. Mostly
sunny and generally comfortable on Tue with highs mainly in the
lower to mid 80s. Hotter conditions and more humidity returns
for Wed, then very hot and humid for Thu and Fri. Highs in the
mid 80s to lower 90s Wed, and in the mid to upper 90s on the
Fourth of July and Fri (lower 90s over the Lower MD and VA ern
shore both days). With dewpoints climbing back into the upper
60s to lower 70s both days, there is the potential for heat
indices over 100. There also will be a chance for aftn tstms
both days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...

High pressure centered off the New England was leading to light
E/ESE flow at area terminals early this morning. As a result,
stratus and lower SC were developing over portions of the
region. Guidance continues to favor low-end MVFR, but cannot
rule out patchy pockets of IFR stratus, esply in/near central
VA (including RIC) until around 12Z this morning. Not expecting
much in the way of VSBY restrictions. A few showers are also
possible at ECG through this morning. For this aftn, mainly dry
conditions expected though a very brief shower or storm is
possible at any terminal. SCT CU again redevelops with a 7-12
kt S or SE wind.

Mainly dry conditions continue into tonight, with just an isolated
threat of a shower or storm. Sctd to numerous showers/tstms are
likely Sun aftn through Sun night, some of which could be strong
to severe. High pressure and drier conditions return for later
Mon morning through Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday...

Key messages:

- A High Rip Risk for eastern shore (VA/MD) beaches today, with
  moderate Rip Risk for SE VA & NE NC. Moderate Rip for all
  beaches Sunday.

- A brief period of SCA level winds is expected in the bay late
  this afternoon and this evening, and a Small Craft Advisory
  is in effect during this period.

- A period of SCA conditions is very likely for most of the
  waters on Monday with northerly winds behind a cold front.

High pressure is centered off the New England coast early this
aftn. The wind is mainly SE 10-15kt, with some lingering 3-4ft
swell over the ocean. High pressure sinks S off the coast
tonight. There is a period of channeling across the Ches. Bay
late this aftn and evening, with a SSE wind of 15-20kt with
gusts to 25kt. SCAs for the Ches. Bay remain in effect from 4 PM
to 1 AM. Elsewhere, expected a SSE wind of 10-15kt with gusts
to 20kt. The wind shifts to SSW later tonight and diminishes to
10-15kt. Seas should remain 3- 4ft tonight, but could touch 5ft
out near 20nm off the MD coast, with 2-3ft waves in the Ches.
Bay. A rather strong cold front for summer approaches from the
NW Sunday. The wind should generally remain SW 10-15kt out ahead
of the front. However, some strong to severe tstms could bring
some locally stronger wind gusts. A decent CAA surge will follow
the cold front late Sunday night into early Monday morning with
a NNW wind of 15-25kt. Seas build to 3-5ft, with 2-4ft waves in
the Ches. Bay. SCAs are likely for the Ches. Bay, lower James,
and Currituck Sound, and potentially the coastal waters S of
Cape Charles. The wind remains N 10-15kt Monday aftn, and then
becomes NE 10-15kt Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure
builds SE toward the New England coast. Seas slowly subside to
~3ft. High pressure settles S off the coast by the middle of
next week with the wind becoming southerly.

A high rip current risk continues through this evening for the
northern beaches with a moderate S. A moderate rip current risk
is forecast for all beaches Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB/TMG
SHORT TERM...AM/TMG
LONG TERM...AM/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJZ