766
FXAK02 KWNH 042231
PMDAK

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
631 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024 - 12Z Fri Jul 12 2024

...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

Model and ensemble guidance seems reasonably clustered valid on
Monday-Wednesday in an amplified and slowly evolving pattern with
above average predictability for broad mass fields, albeit with
more varied local QPF focus. Prefer a 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian composite for system detail. Opted to
switch to best compatible GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means
for next Thursday/Friday amid gradually growing forecast spread.
WPC product continuity is best maintained in this manner.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

A wavy and slowly set to weaken surface front settling generally
west to east and then settling across Mainland Alaska should
provide focus for some moderate to locally heavier precipitation,
with higher totals likely associated with higher terrain given
favorable upper support this weekend into next week. Much of
Alaska remains generally wet and unsettled overall the entire
period, which should help bring some relief to the spreading
wildfires across the state currently. By this weekend into early
next week, rain and storms will increase in coverage and intensity
from Southwest Alaska through the Alaska Peninsula to Southern
Coast as Gulf moisture gets pulled northward ahead of northern
stream upper troughs/systems progression over the mainland. A main
heavy rainfall/runoff issue threat may be from Southwest Alaska to
especially favored south facing terrain of the Alaska Range Sunday
and Monday.

Given overall upper troughing over the state into next week,
daytime highs across nearly all of Mainland Alaska will be well
below normal, with the greatest anomalies across western and
northern parts of the state. Temperatures may begin to moderate
again by mid next week. By then there is also a still growing
guidance signal to lift an organized low pressure/frontal system
up across the Gulf of Alaska. This slow/evolving track would
provide protracted unsettled maritimes conditions over the Gulf
and act to increasingly next week support potential for some
moderate to heavy rainfall from southern Alaska through the
Southeast. The main focus may develop from eastern southern Alaska
through northern Southeast Alaska next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Schichtel


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$