252
FXAK67 PAJK 041339
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
539 AM AKDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SHORT TERM...Generally drier weather for much of the panhandle,
though chances of rain will linger through the Icy Strait Corridor
on Thursday.

A vertically stacked low continues to drift southward from S of
Kodiak Island towards the northern central Pacific. An area of
high pressure over the eastern and northern Gulf of Alaska will
continue to persist. Weak flow pattern aloft will not lead to any
systems coming in and breaking the pattern so the marine deck
will continue. Expect continued clearing for the southern
panhandle as the more pronounced NW winds contribute to a drying
and clearing trend. Some high clouds are possible from a wave
associated with the vertically staged low which is attempting to
work its way N, but the wave itself will disintegrate before it
reaches SE AK. Expect occasional rain across the Icy Strait
corridor through the day, before precip chance start to lower
through the afternoon and evening hours. A few showers for others
areas in the northern panhandle may also be possible at times,
given the location of the ridge axis.

Primary changes were to adjust high temperatures downward for
Thursday and kept elevated chances of precip for the Icy Strait
corridor through the afternoon and evening time frame. Also
elevated winds slightly in a few locations, but otherwise the
forecast remains largely unchanged.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...
Overview: High pressure ridge over the AK Gulf remains in place into
the weekend keeping overall quiet weather. Increasing probability of
rain next week.

Low pressure system over the Western Gulf will have tracked to the
south while high pressure ridge over the Eastern Gulf expands.
souther areas will get the most out of this pattern will dry weather
and decreased cloud cover. The surface ridge keeps onshore flow for
northern half of the panhandle keeping slight chances of light
showers and mostly cloudy skies in place. The NE Gulf Coast will
remain under cloudy skies with high pops into the weekend.
Ensembles probability of mostly cloudy skies drops into the weekend
while operational models have more of a spread as NAM showing wide
spread low cloud deck while GFS has skies lifting and more breaks.
Moderated temps where clouds remain but the southern areas warming
into the low 70s due to solar heating. Warmer 850 mb air mass moves
in by next week. Inner channel winds will be generally 10 kt or less
initially except for the northern channels where the pressure
gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low will have
southerly winds closer to 15 to 20 kt. Eastern gulf winds on lee
side of the ridge in the 15 to 20 kt range with tip jets near
coastal ocean entrances possible into the weekend. Next gulf
front/low has been delayed into late Monday/Tuesday before the
blocking pattern breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rinse and repeat forecast with a mixed bag of IFR to VFR flight
conditions this morning across the panhandle under mostly BKN to
OVC skies and isolated showers over the northern panhandle.
For majority of TAF sites, conditions will marginally improve
through mid morning, with flight conditions reaching upper end
MVFR to low end VFR by this afternoon with CIGS AoB 5000ft.
Anticipating best flying conditions to stay near PAKT and PAKW
through today, going VFR conditions with clearing skies under an
upper lvl BKN to SCT deck after 18z. Winds should remain around
10kts or less through today, outside of PAGY and PAHN which could
see sustained winds up to 15kts and isolated gusts up 25kts.

&&

.MARINE...No significant systems in the area. Clouds will help
diminish sea breeze impacts. Anticipate wind speeds of up to 20 kt
for parts of the outer coastal waters, northern Lynn Canal, and
ocean entrances.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS/Bezenek
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS

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