Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
795 FXAK67 PAJK 011338 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 538 AM AKDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SHORT TERM...Vertically stacked low over the SW gulf will eject a couple of shortwaves across the region today. This will maintain cloudy skies, cooler temps and on/off light rain through Tue morning. Tight pressure gradient persisted over the N panhandle with fresh to strong breezes through N Lynn Canal and the Klondike Hwy. Expect these winds to ease slightly late morning/early afternoon before increasing again this evening. Biggest change to forecast was to increase PoPs to categorical and go with stratiform wording. Overall, forecast confidence remains above average. .LONG TERM...Relatively quiet forecast for the mid to extended range period today as the upper level pattern is somewhat static. An upper low will be getting cut off from the jet stream over the far SW Gulf of Alaska early in the forecast and will last throughout the period. The main axis of the jet stream meanwhile is diverted north through the Alaska interior and Yukon Territory by a ridge upstream of the cut off low. SE Alaska will be situated in a quiet zone of weak ridging NE of the cut off low and south of the main jet axis for just about the entire extended forecast as a result. At the surface, ridging across the Gulf of Alaska is much more pronounced then at higher levels resulting in a distinct lack of any major system affecting the area through next weekend. That being said the surface ridge axis is rather flat to start off with, and then starts to situate and strengthen itself more in the south central gulf by next weekend keeping W to NW flow going across the gulf and Panhandle through the period. Included in this is a slight onshore component to the low level flow which will work to keep at least a chance of showers (highest chances are early in the forecast due to a weak surface through moving through the panhandle on Tuesday) across the north and general cloudiness across most areas through the extended from a combination of moist marine air interacting with the terrain and marine layer low clouds invading from the Gulf. I can not rule out some large holes opening up in the cloud cover from time to time especially later in the week and during the weekend, allowing the sun to warm temperatures up move than expected at times, but a general mostly cloudy forecast with temps in the 60s for highs is the rule of the extended forecast today. Little in the way of higher winds expected for the extended with the lack of any major systems coming through. Winds along the near coastal waters of the gulf were increased to around 20 kt NW on Tuesday as a weak trough moves through. Otherwise, highest winds will mainly be with sea breeze circulations when they do develop during the afternoons and evenings. && .AVIATION...Conditions will remain mostly VFR with periods of MVFR due to short waves going through the area brining periods of rain. Most areas will have ceilings in VFR or MVFR with the exception of a few locations in the southern panhandle that could experience times of IFR ceilings. Conditions may briefly improve from MVFR to VFR between the periods of rain. && .HYDROLOGY...Chilkat River remains above minor flood stage due to higher elevation snow melt. Temperatures will gradually cool through mid week so the Chilkat River will remain near or above minor flood stage through mid week. The Taku River gauge began steadily rising Sun afternoon with water temps cooling. This is indicative of the beginning of a glacier dam release from Lake No Lake. Due to the inherent uncertainty in initial glacier lake volume, crest height and timing will vary. Stay tuned for the latest updates. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012. && $$ SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM....EAL AVIATION...EAB/BC HYDROLOGY...BC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau