315
FXAK69 PAFG 051030
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
230 AM AKDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Some drier weather returns today, though we aren`t completely out
of the woods. Rain, mist and areas of fog are blanketing Northern
Alaska today, but there will be some improvement from west to east
as we move through the day, especially from Fairbanks west. Daily
rain chances continue each day through the weekend and say it
ain`t snow! Yes, there is a chance for snow on the North Slope
Saturday evening into Sunday but accumulations are not likely
outside of some potential slush. Winds continue to be strong
today, especially in the higher terrain and we do have a wind
advisory through 10 PM today for gusts to 45 mph in the White
Mountains and higher terrain south of the Yukon River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
Models initialized fairly well at 00z but we are seeing higher
heights on the Utqiagvik radiosonde than what is currently
modeled. This could mean that the low in the Arctic is
weaker/slower, or the ridging in the NPAC extending into AK is
stronger. Given that we are seeing very similar heights on the
models compared to the sounding in Nome, Kotzebue and even Cold
Bay, it is unlikely that the ridge is stronger. The most likely
outcome is that the low in the Arctic is weaker or slower to move
in, which will only make minor impacts to the timing of
precipitation. Otherwise, the aforementioned high in the Central
NPAC has remained nearly stationary since yesterday, the low in
the southern Gulf has also remained nearly stationary and westerly
flow continues over much of the Mainland.

Surface Analysis...
What we were expecting yesterday in terms of rainfall panned out
quite well with widespread rainfall totals around 0.25-0.50" for
much of the Interior and nearly an inch in the higher terrain.
Otherwise, expect rain continue as westerly flow persists this
morning, then it will gradually clear this afternoon from west to
east with a few breaks in the clouds possible from the Central
Interior, west. The North Slope will have periods of fog and rain
as well today with widespread rain moving in tonight as a front
drops south and east from the Arctic. Temperatures will be
cooling through the weekend on the North Slope, while the Interior
and West coast remains pretty stationary with rain expected
everyday also.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain and breezy conditions continue today with parts of the area
drying out this afternoon, especially the valleys from Fairbanks
west. The higher terrain will hang on to rain showers most of the
day. Tonight looks to come with much drier weather with winds
diminishing. However, breezy conditions return tomorrow but
gradually weaken on Sunday. The strongest winds appear to be in
the AK Range passes Saturday evening through Sunday morning. The
main area being focused is from Isabel Pass to Delta Junction
where wind gusts may be as high as 45-50 mph. A wind advisory may
be needed. Otherwise, each day through Monday comes with a chance
of rain, and it may be a bit heavy Saturday into Sunday as a
couple of systems move through from west to east. Rainfall totals
are quite high through Monday with many areas seeing 0.50-1.00"
and the higher terrain seeing 1.00-2.00" of rain. A pretty
significant difference from last night is that the heaviest rain
appears to have shifted farther south over the southern Interior
due to the waves of energy aloft being farther south and this will
have to be monitored.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Wind and rain subsides a bit today as light rain exits to the east
this morning. Rain showers will most likely remain over the area
but they will be isolated with most of them sheltering over the
higher terrain. Saturday`s forecast has changed a bit with the
most recent trends showing a stronger piece of energy moving
through and a front behind that providing rain most of the day
from the Seward Peninsula east. The secondary front that comes
through Saturday night may have some heavy rain with it and gusty
winds. Overall, rain chances persist through Sunday, though it may
end up being a nice afternoon north and west of Galena as the
front passes through. South of Galena still holds high chances for
rain, heavy at times through Sunday night. Monday`s rain chances
may stay from Galena south, though there is some uncertainty.
Nonetheless, rainfall totals through Monday are around 0.25-0.50"
in the Seward Peninsula and 0.50-1.00" in the Western Interior
with the higher elevations potentially over 1 inch.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Widespread rainfall continues today with the heaviest holding
south of Utqiagvik. Rainfall amounts around a tenth of an inch are
expected in Utqiagvik with the rest of the North Slope and Brooks
Range sitting around 0.30-0.70" through tonight. Heading into
Saturday, especially the afternoon and evening, temperatures will
be dropping off pretty significantly with high temperatures in the
30s to near 40 from the Coast to the N. Brooks Range on Sunday.
There is a chance for a rain/snow mix, or a complete changeover to
snow from the Brooks Range northward Saturday evening into Sunday
morning. Accumulating snow is not expected along the coast or in
the Arctic Plain, but locations above 3500 feet in the Brooks
Range may see a slushy coating of snow. It will be difficult to
accumulate anything given the previous warm temperatures and rain.
However, if there are periods of heavy snow rates, it can
accumulate on colder surfaces briefly before melting shortly
after. Otherwise, colder weather continues on Monday with the
chance for snow showers.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Rainy and cooler conditions will continue in the extended with
several rounds of rain anticipated across the state. A strong 592
decameter high in the central NPAC will persist through the
weekend, weaken and then gradually shift south next week leading
to broad, longwave troughing next week which will likely keep rain
chances and cooler temps in play. Looking towards the end of the
week, ensembles still diverge a bit, as expected, but it is
leaning towards slightly warmer temperatures in the east, closer
to seasonal norms and cooler/wetter in the west/north.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
As SW winds persist, expect sea level heights to remain about
0.5-2 feet above the normal high tide line this weekend from Nome
South. The highest water levels are expected at Koyuk with 4-5
feet of water level rise through this weekend. Those with items
on the beach should continue to take precautions as water levels
remain high until the beginning of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain continues this morning in the Interior before gradually
drying out from west to east. The exception will be in the higher
terrain where showers likely remain. Most valley locations will
dry out in the afternoon. Otherwise, another round of wetting
rains arrives tomorrow morning in the Western Interior and during
the afternoon in the Central and eastern Interior. The only areas
that the highest chance of missing out on the wetting rain will be
south and east of Fairbanks in the Tanana Valley and the Yukon
Flats. Rainfall totals elsewhere will be around 0.10-0.50" with
higher elevations around a half inch. Another round of rain then
arrives Saturday night and moves from the northwest to southeast
with an additional 0.25-0.50" from Circle to SW AK. In terms of
wind, southwest winds do increase today in the White Mountains and
along the Steese Highway, east of Twelve Mile Summit, where wind
gusts to 45 mph are anticipated. Not to be left out, southerly
flow strengthens in the AK Range passes today into Saturday, with
gusts of 35 to 45 mph expected, potentially hitting 50 mph in the
eastern Alaska Range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expect continued rises on rivers draining the Brooks Range from
recent heavy rain, including, but not limited to, the Wulik,
Kobuk, Noatak, and Koyukuk Rivers and smaller creeks and streams.

In the Interior, rain is going to be moving through each day
through the weekend as well with the highest rainfall amounts
upwards of 1.00-2.00". The highest amounts should be expected in
the higher terrain. This may also lead to rises in some rivers and
streams.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ834.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802>805-807-850-852-853-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-809.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Bianco