892
FXUS63 KABR 020530 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The active weather pattern of showers and thunderstorms persists
  through the workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 936 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Updated POPs to clear out the western edge more quickly. The HRRR
seems to have a fairly good handle on precip trends over the next
few hours. No severe weather is expected tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Daytime heating and elevated lapse rates over western SD will assist
in the rapid development of thunderstorms in the next 2-3 hours. We
will be monitoring these storms as they near or develop across our
central SD counties around or shortly after 21Z. Initial storms will
be capable of producing large hail around 2 inches in diameter,
strong winds over 60 mph. We won`t be able to rule out a tornado or
2 with these initial storms over our area. Forecast solutions have
come into better agreement on the timing of storms between 5-9pm
over central SD and the James River Valley from 8-10pm, before
shifting to far eastern SD and west central MN 10pm-midnight.
Significant low level clouds across the James River Valley and east
should act to weaken incoming storms, despite the significant low
level moisture and strong winds. Other than lingering light showers
over our far eastern counties after midnight, dry weather should
then be the rule for much of the forecast area through the rest of
the forecast period. The exception will be our far southwest
counties. We`ll be monitoring the latest trends, as some CAMS are
pin pointing the potential for a few showers or weak thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Our temperature forecast is currently running in the 20-40th
percentile (on the low side) Wednesday through Thursday. While the
25-75th percentiles are generally within about 5 degrees, be aware
that there is room for change and more likely to higher readings for
that period.

Dry weather will continue through Wednesday morning. There is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather Wednesday over our
counties west of the Missouri River. Dewpoints will be on the
increase again Wednesday late Wednesday afternoon/evening, getting
back into the low 60s. A band of higher CAPE values over 1000 J/kg
looks to move into at least our southwestern counties by around 21Z
as a trough shifts across western SD. The main surface low over
eastern CO will push southeast across western KS/OK Thursday morning.

The unsettled (at least a 30 percent chance of precipitation every 6
hours) will continue through Thursday evening, with more afternoon
and evening shower and thunderstorm anticipated through the upcoming
weekend. The 500mb trough currently over the west coast will shift
across the Northern Plains on Tuesday, and be reinforced Thursday
with a low sinking overhead before shifting across MN late Thursday
night into Friday. While a brief ridge may shift in Friday night, an
overall trough type of pattern will quickly return for the rest of
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR cigs across the east will clear from west to east overnight
as a trough exits the region, leaving VFR conditions. A few more
showers and thunderstorms may move south of Pierre tonight, but
most of the region is expected to remain dry overnight and through
the day Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Parkin