020
FXUS63 KABR 020816
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
316 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few rain showers are possible across south central and east
  central South Dakota this morning into the early afternoon
  hours. Otherwise, dry conditions expected through Wednesday
  morning.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather
  Wednesday afternoon and evening across central South Dakota.
  The main threats with the stronger storms will be large hail
  and strong wind gusts.

- The active weather pattern of showers and thunderstorms persists
  through the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

An upper level trough will swing across the Northern Plains today,
with some pretty potent energy sliding across parts of the southern
and eastern CWA. As the trough exits to the east, will see the flow
become more zonal tonight and Wednesday.

At the surface, a warm front will set up over southern South Dakota
today, and in conjunction with the upper level energy, may be the
focus for precipitation, mainly in the form of rain showers. High
pressure will begin to drop in over the region late this afternoon
and tonight, keeping conditions dry through Wednesday morning, A
frontal boundary associated with low pressure over Colorado will set
up over western South Dakota Wednesday afternoon, and may see some
shower and thunderstorm activity develop as far east as central
South Dakota. Instability will be pretty limited, but will see shear
of 40 to 60 knots during the late afternoon hours. SPC has
highlighted the western half of the CWA with a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 5) for severe weather, with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main threats with any storms that develop.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Wednesday evening starts the long term in westerly flow. Thursday, a
low pressure system dips south out of Canada. Deterministic models
are very similar on track and timing, bringing the center over
northern SD. This low continues to move east through the overnight
hours and by Friday morning is over southern MN. Flow will be out of
the northwest for Saturday. On Sunday, another low moves across our
north. Monday through the end of the period we stay in a northerly
flow pattern aloft.

Thursday will be the first active day of the period. 60-80% PoPs
start in north central and central SD and spread east throughout the
day. By mid afternoon, 70+ PoPs cover the entire forecast area.
Chances start to diminish overnight but 30% PoPs remain through
Friday for eastern SD. 48 hour rain accumulations ending Saturday
morning have around an 80% chance of exceeding a tenth of an inch,
but only a 40 to 50% chance of exceeding a half inch for eastern SD,
less west of the James River. This, of course, does not include any
rain from possible thunderstorms. Storms are not expected to be
severe at this time. 30 to 45% chances return Saturday night for
areas east of the James River, but are expected to diminish Sunday
morning.

Thursday is expected to be the coolest day of the period with highs
in the upper 60s to low 70s, or about 10 to 15 degrees below
average. The rest of the period will be around average with highs in
the 80s. Winds aren`t expected to be much of a problem with highest
wind gusts around 25 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

IFR cigs across the east will clear from west to east overnight
as a trough exits the region, leaving VFR conditions. A few more
showers and thunderstorms may move south of Pierre tonight, but
most of the region is expected to remain dry overnight and through
the day Tuesday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin